Li Cun, Zong Shaohui
Department of Spine Osteopathia, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.
Department of Spine Osteopathia, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning; and Wuming Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.
Clin Exp Rheumatol. 2025 May 8. doi: 10.55563/clinexprheumatol/r9rruc.
To assess the trends and inequalities in the burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) among women of childbearing age (WCBA) and projects future trends at the global, regional, and national levels.
Data on RA prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and deaths for WCBA were sourced from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021. Percentage change (PC), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and the ARIMA model were used to analyse trends and project the burden through 2050.
In 2021, the global prevalence, incidence, and DALYs cases of RA among WCBA were 4.45 million, 326.6 thousand, and 650.75 thousand, respectively, with significant increases since 1990 (PC: 88%, 68%, and 71%). Over the past 32 years, global rates for prevalence, incidence, and DALYs have all risen, with EAPC values of 0.89 (95% UI: 0.87-0.92), 0.54 (95% UI: 0.51-0.56), and 0.61 (95% UI: 0.57-0.64), respectively. Death cases and rates have decreased globally and in most regions. Among the five Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, the high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region reported the highest rates of RA burden. By age, older age groups had higher prevalence, incidence, and DALYs, with the 45-49 age group showing the highest incidence in 2021 (59.22 thousand cases, rate of 25.13 per 10,000). However, younger groups, particularly those aged 15-19, experienced the fastest incidence growth (EAPC 0.64). By 2050, RA prevalence and DALYs rates are projected to rise to 266.34 and 37.63 per 100,000, while incidence will stabilise and deaths will continue to decline.
The RA burden among WCBA has significantly increased over the past 32 years, with a notable shift in risk towards younger populations. Higher SDI regions bore a disproportionately greater burden. These findings emphasise the need for increased investments and targeted RA interventions for WCBA, supporting the achievement of WHO's Sustainable Development Goal 3.
评估育龄期女性（WCBA）类风湿关节炎（RA）负担的趋势和不平等情况，并预测全球、区域和国家层面的未来趋势。
WCBA的RA患病率、发病率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和死亡数据来自《2021年全球疾病负担研究》。采用百分比变化（PC）、估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）和自回归积分移动平均模型（ARIMA）分析趋势并预测到2050年的负担情况。
2021年，WCBA中RA的全球患病率、发病率和DALYs病例数分别为445万、32.66万和65.075万，自1990年以来显著增加（PC：88%、68%和71%）。在过去32年中，全球患病率、发病率和DALYs率均有所上升，EAPC值分别为0.89（95%UI：0.87 - 0.92）、0.54（95%UI：0.51 - 0.56）和0.61（95%UI：0.57 - 0.64）。全球及大多数地区的死亡病例数和死亡率均有所下降。在五个社会人口指数（SDI）区域中，高社会人口指数（SDI）区域的RA负担率最高。按年龄划分，年龄较大的组患病率、发病率和DALYs较高，2021年45 - 49岁年龄组发病率最高（59220例，每10000人中有25.13例）。然而，较年轻的组，特别是15 - 19岁的组，发病率增长最快（EAPC为0.64）。到2050年，预计RA患病率和DALYs率将分别升至每10万人266.34例和37.63例，而发病率将趋于稳定，死亡率将继续下降。
在过去32年中，WCBA的RA负担显著增加，风险明显向年轻人群转移。社会人口指数较高的地区负担 disproportionately 更大。这些发现强调需要增加对WCBA的投资并实施针对性的RA干预措施，以支持实现世界卫生组织的可持续发展目标3。
