Cheng Siqi, Du Xinyan, Hou ChengBei, Liu Hongjun, Lei Shaoyuan, Wu Yue, Yue Xiaolin, Guo Yansu
Beijing Geriatric Healthcare and Disease Prevention Center, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Evidence-Based Medicine Center, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
BMJ Open. 2025 May 15;15(5):e091955. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-091955.
The rapidly expanding population of ageing and older adults with disability has been a continuing public health priority in recent decades. The first step towards solving this issue is to assess disability accurately and identify high-risk factors and individuals for early prevention. We aim to establish a prospective cohort, the Beijing Longitudinal Disability Survey in Community Elderly (BLINDSCE), using multidimensional disability assessments and to develop multifactorial models for disability prediction among community-dwelling older adults.
The BLINDSCE is a prospective cohort study that includes community-dwelling older adults aged ≥65 years with or without disability from urban and rural areas in Beijing. Participants complete structured questionnaires and undergo assessments of disability, cognition and disability-related factors and outcomes. Disability is assessed using the WHO's Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0, activities of daily living, the Barthel index, locomotor function and physical function. Based on baseline cross-sectional information, the relationships between multiple factors and disability can be initially screened using logistic regression. Every 1-1.5 years, participants will receive a follow-up survey to remeasure disability, cognitive function and other disability-related factors and outcomes. At least three follow-ups are scheduled. The primary outcome of this study is disability. The secondary outcomes include cognition and many disability-related conditions, such as falls, pain, poor health, decreased intrinsic capacity, frailty, sarcopenia, hospitalisation and death. Cox proportional hazards or logistic regression will be used to analyse follow-up data and construct prediction models, which will be validated internally and externally.
The Ethics Committee of Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, approved this study (No: [2023]129). The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals focusing on geriatric medicine and presented at related scientific conferences.
NCT06863727. Stage of study: recruiting.
近几十年来，残疾老年人数量迅速增长，这一直是公共卫生领域持续关注的重点。解决这一问题的第一步是准确评估残疾情况，识别高危因素和个体，以便早期预防。我们旨在建立一个前瞻性队列，即北京社区老年人残疾纵向调查（BLINDSCE），采用多维残疾评估方法，并为社区居住的老年人开发残疾预测的多因素模型。
BLINDSCE是一项前瞻性队列研究，纳入了来自北京城乡地区、年龄≥65岁、有或无残疾的社区居住老年人。参与者需完成结构化问卷，并接受残疾、认知以及与残疾相关因素和结局的评估。使用世界卫生组织残疾评定量表2.0、日常生活活动能力、巴氏指数、运动功能和身体功能来评估残疾情况。基于基线横断面信息，可使用逻辑回归初步筛选多种因素与残疾之间的关系。每1至1.5年，参与者将接受一次随访调查，重新测量残疾、认知功能以及其他与残疾相关的因素和结局。计划至少进行三次随访。本研究的主要结局是残疾。次要结局包括认知以及许多与残疾相关的情况，如跌倒、疼痛、健康状况不佳、内在能力下降、衰弱、肌肉减少症、住院和死亡。将使用Cox比例风险模型或逻辑回归分析随访数据并构建预测模型，这些模型将在内部和外部进行验证。
首都医科大学宣武医院伦理委员会批准了本研究（编号：[2023]129）。研究结果将发表在专注于老年医学的同行评审期刊上，并在相关科学会议上展示。
NCT06863727。研究阶段：招募中。
