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1993年至2021年期间,北美落叶木本群落的生长季节延长。

Growing Season Lengthens in a North American Deciduous Woody Community From 1993 to 2021.

作者信息

Augspurger Carol K, Zaya David N

机构信息

Department of Plant Biology University of Illinois Urbana Illinois USA.

Illinois Natural History Survey University of Illinois Champaign Illinois USA.

出版信息

Ecol Evol. 2025 May 19;15(5):e71226. doi: 10.1002/ece3.71226. eCollection 2025 May.

Abstract

Observations of both spring and autumn phenological events were made annually over 29 years (1993-2021) for 22 taxa of multiple growth forms in a mature deciduous forest remnant near Urbana, Illinois, USA. Temporal trends in event dates, trends in stage durations, and associations with weather variables were analyzed with linear mixed-effect models. Species were grouped together in analyses based on seasonality.Spring event dates for most species advanced from 1.2 to 3.0 days/decade, while durations of spring stages shortened from 0.3 to 0.6 days/decade.Autumn event dates for most species delayed from 1.2 to 3.3 days/decade, while durations of autumn stages lengthened from 0.8 to 3.8 days/decade.Overall, the duration of the growing season lengthened for 88% of species (mean of 4.7 days/decade), with greater delays in autumn phenology for canopy trees and greater advances in spring phenology for other woody life forms.In spring, warmer mean daily temperatures were associated with advances in dates of phenological events. In autumn, minimum daily temperature in the preceding month(s) had the highest predictive power for seasonal groups, except those with .In autumn, most species had both a delay in phenology and a strong weather predictor, minimum daily temperature in September, that increased significantly through 29 years. In spring, some concordance between advancing event dates and warming spring temperatures were evident after removing data from 2018 to 2021 with especially high variability in spring temperatures.This study supports the hypothesis that climate change is showing a pronounced association with a delay in autumn leaf coloration, and less so an advance of spring leaf expansion. These changes can affect ecological processes, including plant productivity and carbon uptake/storage, assembly of communities, interactions between trophic levels, and species ranges and invasions.

摘要

在美国伊利诺伊州厄巴纳附近一片成熟的落叶林残余地,对29年(1993 - 2021年)间22种多种生长形式的分类群每年进行春季和秋季物候事件观测。使用线性混合效应模型分析事件日期的时间趋势、阶段持续时间趋势以及与天气变量的关联。在分析中,根据季节性将物种分组。大多数物种的春季事件日期每十年提前1.2至3.0天,而春季阶段的持续时间每十年缩短0.3至0.6天。大多数物种的秋季事件日期每十年推迟1.2至3.3天,而秋季阶段的持续时间每十年延长0.8至3.8天。总体而言,88%的物种生长季节持续时间延长(平均每十年4.7天),冠层树木秋季物候延迟更大,其他木本生命形式春季物候提前更大。在春季,平均每日温度升高与物候事件日期提前相关。在秋季,前一个月(几个月)的最低每日温度对季节性群体具有最高的预测能力,但某些群体除外。在秋季,大多数物种物候推迟,且有一个强大的天气预测指标,即9月的最低每日温度,在29年中显著升高。在春季,去除2018年至2021年春季温度变化特别大的数据后,事件日期提前与春季变暖温度之间存在一些一致性。本研究支持以下假设:气候变化与秋季叶片变色延迟显著相关,而与春季叶片展开提前的关联较小。这些变化会影响生态过程,包括植物生产力和碳吸收/储存、群落组装、营养级之间的相互作用以及物种范围和入侵。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cee6/12086525/06f9d1acafa3/ECE3-15-e71226-g005.jpg

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