中国上海使用尼塞韦单抗预防婴儿呼吸道合胞病毒疾病的成本效益分析:一项建模研究。
Cost-effectiveness analysis of nirsevimab for prevention of respiratory syncytial virus disease among infants in Shanghai, China: A modeling study.
作者信息
Wang Qiang, Wu Jiajin, Li Lan, Guo Zizhe, Zheng Bo, Zhang Suyi, Xiang Cui, Li Meng, Qiao Xuefei, Lv Xihong, Wang Weibing
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Department of Microbiology, Songjiang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Songjiang District Health Inspecting Agency), Shanghai, China.
出版信息
Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2025 Dec;21(1):2506288. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2025.2506288. Epub 2025 May 20.
Chinese authority approved nirsevimab to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in January 2024. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of nirsevimab immunization among infants in Shanghai. A decision-tree Markov model was developed to compare two strategies - year-round and seasonal immunization - with nonintervention, from a societal perspective, using RSV-associated disease burden and demographic data. Twelve monthly birth cohorts were followed through 24 one-month Markov cycles. Two scenarios of nirsevimab efficacy were considered: short-duration and long-duration. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained) was calculated and the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the uncertainty. Both immunization strategies demonstrated cost-effectiveness across efficacy scenarios, with seasonal approach yielding lower ICERs than the year-round approach. The cost-effectiveness of the seasonal approach was influenced by the timing of its administration. Nirsevimab immunization may be an economically favorable strategy for infant RSV prevention in Shanghai. The optimal program timing of seasonal immunization requires further investigation to maximize public health impact.
2024年1月,中国相关部门批准了nirsevimab用于预防呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)。我们旨在评估在上海婴儿中进行nirsevimab免疫接种的成本效益。从社会角度出发,利用RSV相关疾病负担和人口数据,开发了一个决策树马尔可夫模型,以比较全年免疫和季节性免疫这两种策略与不干预策略。12个每月出生队列随访24个为期1个月的马尔可夫周期。考虑了nirsevimab疗效的两种情景:短期和长期。计算了增量成本效益比(ICER)(每获得一个质量调整生命年[QALY]的增量成本),并将支付意愿(WTP)阈值设定为人均国内生产总值(GDP)。进行了敏感性分析以评估不确定性。两种免疫策略在不同疗效情景下均显示出成本效益,季节性免疫方法产生的ICER低于全年免疫方法。季节性免疫方法的成本效益受其接种时间的影响。在上海,nirsevimab免疫接种可能是预防婴儿RSV的一种经济上有利的策略。季节性免疫的最佳方案时间需要进一步研究,以最大限度地提高对公众健康的影响。