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基于媒体报道下双层网络行为博弈论的传染病建模与分析

Modeling and analysis of infectious diseases based on behavioral game theory on two-layered networks under media coverage.

作者信息

Wang Jianrong, Zeng Rong, Chang Xinghua

机构信息

School of Automation and Software Engineering, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China.

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 May 20;20(5):e0320904. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0320904. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

The spread of infectious diseases poses significant threats to public health, the economy, and society as a whole. Despite governmental control measures over individual behavior, the public might still be influenced by factors such as costs, expected benefits, and the behavior of others, leading to incomplete adherence to disease control measures. Therefore, this paper proposes a behavioral game theory based infectious disease model on two-layer networks. First, considering the dynamic interaction between individual awareness behavior and disease spreading, a two-layer coupled network of individual behavioral awareness and disease spreading is established. Second, game theory is used to describe the impact of relevant factors on individual awareness behavior. The first layer represents the individual protective behavior game layer, while the second layer represents the disease spreading layer. Government intervention in individual behavior is also considered in the two-layer network model, according to the situation of infectious disease spreading, a threshold model is introduced to control individual protective behavior. Finally, MMCA is used to analyze the disease spreading threshold, and the proportion of the final population state and the spreading threshold under different model parameters are analyzed. The results show that by reducing personal protective costs, increasing individual attention to disease information, and enhancing governmental adjustments to disease control measures, the outbreak threshold of disease spreading can be effectively increased.

摘要

传染病的传播对公众健康、经济乃至整个社会都构成了重大威胁。尽管政府对个人行为采取了管控措施,但公众仍可能受到成本、预期收益及他人行为等因素的影响,导致对疾病防控措施的不完全遵守。因此,本文提出了一种基于行为博弈论的双层网络传染病模型。首先,考虑个体认知行为与疾病传播之间的动态相互作用,建立个体行为认知与疾病传播的双层耦合网络。其次,运用博弈论描述相关因素对个体认知行为的影响。第一层代表个体保护行为博弈层,第二层代表疾病传播层。在双层网络模型中还考虑了政府对个体行为的干预,根据传染病传播情况引入阈值模型来控制个体保护行为。最后,利用MMCA分析疾病传播阈值,并分析不同模型参数下最终种群状态的比例和传播阈值。结果表明,通过降低个人防护成本、提高个体对疾病信息的关注度以及加强政府对疾病防控措施的调整,可以有效提高疾病传播的爆发阈值。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c7e6/12091790/11e72e992137/pone.0320904.g001.jpg

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