Liu Can, Xie Jia-Rong, Chen Han-Shuang, Zhang Hai-Feng, Tang Ming
School of Mathematical Science, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, People's Republic of China.
Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China.
Chaos. 2015 Oct;25(10):103111. doi: 10.1063/1.4931032.
The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new class of individuals, S(F), is introduced to the classical susceptible-infected-recovered model. In the model, S(F) state represents that susceptible individuals who take self-initiate protective measures to lower the probability of being infected, and a susceptible individual may go to S(F) state with a response rate when contacting an infectious neighbor. Via the percolation method, the theoretical formulas for the epidemic threshold as well as the prevalence of epidemic are derived. Our finding indicates that, with the increasing of the response rate, the epidemic threshold is enhanced and the prevalence of epidemic is reduced. The analytical results are also verified by the numerical simulations. In addition, we demonstrate that, because the mean field method neglects the dynamic correlations, a wrong result based on the mean field method is obtained-the epidemic threshold is not related to the response rate, i.e., the additional S(F) state has no impact on the epidemic threshold.
传染病的传播会引发人类对该疾病的行为反应,而这反过来又对疫情的传播起着至关重要的作用。在本研究中,为了说明人类行为反应的影响,在经典的易感-感染-康复模型中引入了一类新的个体,即S(F)。在该模型中,S(F)状态表示采取自我主动保护措施以降低感染概率的易感个体,并且一个易感个体在接触感染邻居时可能以一定的反应率进入S(F)状态。通过渗流方法,推导了疫情阈值以及疫情流行程度的理论公式。我们的研究结果表明,随着反应率的增加,疫情阈值提高,疫情流行程度降低。分析结果也通过数值模拟得到了验证。此外,我们证明,由于平均场方法忽略了动态相关性,基于平均场方法得到了错误的结果——疫情阈值与反应率无关,即额外的S(F)状态对疫情阈值没有影响。