Zhang Jinhai, Yang Jingge
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China.
BMC Gastroenterol. 2025 May 20;25(1):386. doi: 10.1186/s12876-025-03938-4.
To analyze the worldwide, regional, and national burden and trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) by gender from 1990 to 2021 and to forecast the burden through 2041.
Data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC attributable to high BMI were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Disparities and trends in CRC due to high BMI burden were analyzed globally and regionally, with stratification by gender and age subgroups. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to project the future burden through 2041.
In 2021, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of CRC attributable to high BMI were estimated at 1.17 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 0.51 to 1.87] and 27.33 (95% UI: 11.80 to 43.37) per 100,000 population, respectively. Both metrics showed a modest increase from 1990 to 2021. During this period, the population attributable fraction (PAF) of CRC deaths due to high BMI increased steadily. Similarly, the PAF of CRC DALYs caused by high BMI also showed a continuous rise. High socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, Central Europe and countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, recorded the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2021. Projections indicate that the global ASMR will decrease by 1%, while the ASDR will increase by 4.23% by 2041.
The global burden of CRC attributable to high BMI remains substantial and is projected to persist, with considerable regional and national variability. These findings emphasize the need for targeted public health interventions and policies to address this preventable risk factor.
分析1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家因高体重指数（BMI）导致的结直肠癌（CRC）负担及趋势，并预测到2041年的负担情况。
从《2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究》中获取因高BMI导致的CRC死亡和伤残调整生命年（DALY）数据。对全球和区域因高BMI负担导致的CRC差异及趋势进行分析，并按性别和年龄亚组进行分层。采用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测到2041年的未来负担情况。
2021年，全球因高BMI导致的CRC年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化DALY率（ASDR）分别估计为每10万人1.17[95%不确定区间（UI）：0.51至1.87]和27.33（95%UI：11.80至43.37）。从1990年到2021年，这两个指标均有适度上升。在此期间，因高BMI导致的CRC死亡人群归因分数（PAF）稳步上升。同样，因高BMI导致的CRC DALY的PAF也持续上升。社会人口学指数（SDI）较高的地区、中欧以及匈牙利和斯洛伐克等国家在2021年的ASMR和ASDR最高。预测表明，到2041年，全球ASMR将下降1%，而ASDR将上升4.23%。
因高BMI导致的全球CRC负担仍然很大，预计将持续存在，且存在相当大的区域和国家差异。这些发现强调了需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施和政策来应对这一可预防的风险因素。
