Zhang Menglin, Hu Yuchen, Mao Yihua, Yang Jiaqi
College of civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Center for Balance Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2025 May 21;20(5):e0323673. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0323673. eCollection 2025.
Nowadays, with the acceleration of urbanization and the profound impact of climate change, urban resilience has become a key issue for sustainable development. Through the panel data of Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2022, this study employs the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model to analyze the coupling coordination relationship of the Economic-Social-Infrastructure-Ecological resilience (ESIE) quaternary system and binary systems. The impact of the CCD of each binary system on the overall CCD is determined by the grey correlation model considering alongside the current state of the coupling coordination development to identify the key binary system that promotes the development of the overall coordination. It finds that the CCD of the ESIE quaternary system in Zhejiang's cities exhibits a consistent upward trend, and spatially, a pattern of coordinated regional urban development centered on the city of Hangzhou and Ningbo emerges. The CCD analysis of binary systems reveals a low level of pairwise CCD between economic, infrastructure and social resilience, with prominent contradictions between the three. Additionally, the CCD of the economic-infrastructure resilience binary system is the core issue currently faced by the overall coordinated development of the ESIE quaternary system. This research not only provides a new perspective for understanding the intrinsic mechanism of coupled and coordinated development of urban resilience but also offers a scientific basis for crafting sustainable urban policies.
如今，随着城市化进程的加速以及气候变化的深远影响，城市韧性已成为可持续发展的关键问题。本研究利用2014年至2022年浙江省的面板数据，采用耦合协调度（CCD）模型分析经济-社会-基础设施-生态韧性（ESIE）四元系统及二元系统的耦合协调关系。考虑到耦合协调发展的现状，通过灰色关联模型确定各二元系统的CCD对整体CCD的影响，以识别促进整体协调发展的关键二元系统。研究发现，浙江各城市ESIE四元系统的CCD呈持续上升趋势，在空间上，形成了以杭州和宁波为中心的区域城市协调发展格局。二元系统的CCD分析表明，经济、基础设施和社会韧性之间的两两CCD水平较低，三者之间矛盾突出。此外，经济-基础设施韧性二元系统的CCD是当前ESIE四元系统整体协调发展面临的核心问题。本研究不仅为理解城市韧性耦合协调发展的内在机制提供了新视角，也为制定可持续城市政策提供了科学依据。
