Tuergan Talaiti, Abulaiti Aimitaji, Tulahong Alimu, Zhang Ruiqing, Shao Yingmei, Aji Tuerganaili
Hepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department，Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Management of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.
Hepatobiliary and Echinococcosis Surgery Department，Digestive and Vascular Surgery Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogenesis, Prevention and Management of High Incidence Diseases in Central Asia, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China; Xinjiang Clinical Research Center for Echinococcosis and Hepatobiliary Diseases, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.
J Infect Public Health. 2025 Aug;18(8):102810. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102810. Epub 2025 May 9.
Echinococcosis, a neglected zoonotic helminthic disease, poses a significant health and economic burden globally. The study aimed to systematically analyze the burden of echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021. This study described incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to echinococcosis, explored trends in disease burden over time, identified high-burden regions and countries, and evaluated the contribution of various age and sex groups to the overall burden.
First, numbers and age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs were assessed globally and by sub-types in 2021. Furthermore, the temporal trend of the disease burden was explored by the linear regression model from 1990 to 2021. Moreover, the age-period-cohort (APC) model and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were used to predict the future disease burden from 2022 to 2046. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the Exponential smoothing (ES) model were used for sensitivity analysis. To further delve into the factors driving changes in the disease burden between 1990 and 2021, decomposition analyses were conducted. Finally, frontier analysis was employed to assess the correlation between disease burden and sociodemographic development.
Exposure to Echinococcosis contributed to 148521 incidence, 633404 prevalence, 1364 deaths, and 105072 DALYs globally in 2021. Younger and middle-aged adults were high-risk populations. Lower socio-demographic index (SDI) regions were high-risk areas. The disease burden varied considerably across the GBD regions and the countries. From 1990-2021, the number of incidence and prevalence cases increased. The predicted results showed that the incidence and prevalence for both genders would still increase from 2022 to 2046. Countries or regions with a higher SDI have greater burden improvement potential.
In conclusion, Echinococcosis has threatened public health globally. More proactive and effective strategic measures should be developed after considering global-specific circumstances.
棘球蚴病是一种被忽视的人畜共患蠕虫病，在全球范围内造成了重大的健康和经济负担。本研究旨在系统分析1990年至2021年期间棘球蚴病的负担。该研究描述了棘球蚴病的发病率、患病率、死亡人数以及因该病导致的伤残调整生命年（DALYs），探讨了疾病负担随时间的变化趋势，确定了高负担地区和国家，并评估了不同年龄和性别群体对总体负担的贡献。
首先，评估了2021年全球及各亚型的发病率、患病率、死亡人数和DALYs的数量及年龄标准化率。此外，通过线性回归模型探讨了1990年至2021年疾病负担的时间趋势。此外，使用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型和贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测了2022年至2046年的未来疾病负担。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型和指数平滑（ES）模型进行敏感性分析。为了进一步深入研究1990年至2021年期间疾病负担变化的驱动因素，进行了分解分析。最后，采用前沿分析评估疾病负担与社会人口发展之间的相关性。
2021年，全球范围内棘球蚴病导致148521例发病、633404例患病、1364例死亡和105072个伤残调整生命年。中青年成年人是高危人群。社会人口指数（SDI）较低的地区是高危地区。疾病负担在全球疾病负担（GBD）地区和国家之间差异很大。1990年至2021年期间，发病和患病病例数有所增加。预测结果表明，2022年至2046年期间，男女发病率和患病率仍将上升。SDI较高的国家或地区负担改善潜力更大。
总之，棘球蚴病已在全球范围内威胁到公众健康。应根据全球具体情况制定更积极有效的战略措施。
