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主要大尺度环流系统对中国地表臭氧污染的定量影响

Quantitative impacts of dominant large-scale circulation systems on surface ozone pollution in China.

作者信息

Zhang Shu, Yuan Zibing, Zheng Zhonghua, Zhao Kaihui

机构信息

School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China.

School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China.

出版信息

J Environ Sci (China). 2025 Oct;156:42-55. doi: 10.1016/j.jes.2024.07.015. Epub 2024 Jul 23.

Abstract

Tropospheric ozone pollution has been worsened over most regions of China, adversely affecting human health and ecosystems. The long-term ozone concentration depends largely upon atmospheric circulations. Here, we conducted meteorological adjustment to quantitatively assess the influences of meteorological factors on the ozone evolution in China's seven city clusters during the warm season (April to October) from 2013 to 2020. Our analysis indicated that northern and eastern regions experienced ozone increases driven by emission changes. Southern regions, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD), exhibited ozone rise primarily due to meteorological conditions despite emission changes. In the Sichuan Basin (SCB) and Central Yangtze River Plain (CYP), where ozone levels decreased, meteorological conditions played a significant role in suppressing the ascent of ozone. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analyses suggested that the spatiotemporal trend of meteorology-associated ozone was strongly correlated with the variation of East Asian Trough (EAT), South Asian High (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The top three EOF patterns explained 33.4 %, 21.8 %, and 16.0 % of the total variance in meteorology-associated ozone. Absolute principal component scores-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) analyse quantitatively identified that enhanced EAT and SAH with a northward location of WPSH were favourable to surface ozone formation in central and eastern regions, but unfavourable to ozone formation in edge regions such as SCB.

摘要

对流层臭氧污染在中国大部分地区都有所恶化,对人类健康和生态系统产生了不利影响。长期的臭氧浓度在很大程度上取决于大气环流。在此,我们进行了气象调整,以定量评估2013年至2020年暖季(4月至10月)期间气象因素对中国七个城市群臭氧演变的影响。我们的分析表明,北部和东部地区由于排放变化导致臭氧增加。南部地区,特别是珠江三角洲地区,尽管排放有变化,但臭氧上升主要是由于气象条件。在臭氧水平下降的四川盆地和长江中游平原,气象条件在抑制臭氧上升方面发挥了重要作用。经验正交函数分析表明,与气象相关的臭氧的时空趋势与东亚大槽、南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压的变化密切相关。前三个经验正交函数模式解释了与气象相关的臭氧总方差的33.4%、21.8%和16.0%。绝对主成分得分-多元线性回归分析定量地确定,东亚大槽和南亚高压增强且西太平洋副热带高压位置偏北有利于中部和东部地区地面臭氧的形成,但不利于四川盆地等边缘地区的臭氧形成。

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