Jia Li, Liu Zhuojun, Li Yisen
School of Economic and Management, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, 510642, Guangdong, China.
School of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, 510642, Guangdong, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 25;15(1):18244. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-03228-9.
This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of rural settlement evolution in Guangdong Province, China, examining their transformation amid rapid urbanization and industrialization over the past 20 years. Rural settlements serve as primary spatial carriers for production and living activities, embodying multiple functions including production, living, ecological, and cultural aspects. Using GIS-based analytical tools, including landscape pattern indices, average nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation, and geographical detector methods, we examined settlement evolution patterns and their driving factors. Results show a continuous decline in settlement numbers, while patch areas exhibited a U-shaped trend of decreasing then increasing. Settlement patterns shifted from "reduction" to "integration", with intensifying spatial agglomeration over time. The Pearl River Delta and Eastern Guangdong regions followed similar trajectories, reflecting the impact of urbanization and industrialization on rural development. Multiple factors, including natural conditions, socioeconomic variables, and locational accessibility, drove these changes. The spatial distribution of rural settlements demonstrates an overall trend of agglomeration, which has gradually intensified over time, leading to significant variations in settlement density across different regions. The findings reveal significant regional disparities and temporal changes in settlement patterns, highlighting the complex interplay between rural transformation and urban development. This research contributes to understanding rural transformation processes in developing countries and emphasizes the need for differentiated approaches in spatial planning and rural revitalization strategies to address the challenges of disordered land expansion and population hollowing while promoting sustainable rural development.
本研究分析了中国广东省农村聚落演变的时空动态，考察了过去20年快速城市化和工业化进程中它们的转变。农村聚落是生产和生活活动的主要空间载体，具有生产、生活、生态和文化等多种功能。利用基于地理信息系统（GIS）的分析工具，包括景观格局指数、平均最近邻指数、核密度估计和地理探测器方法，我们研究了聚落演变模式及其驱动因素。结果表明，聚落数量持续下降，而斑块面积呈先减少后增加的U形趋势。聚落模式从“缩减”转变为“整合”，随着时间的推移空间集聚加剧。珠江三角洲和粤东地区呈现出相似的轨迹，反映了城市化和工业化对农村发展的影响。自然条件、社会经济变量和区位可达性等多种因素推动了这些变化。农村聚落的空间分布总体上呈现出集聚趋势，且随着时间的推移逐渐加剧，导致不同地区的聚落密度存在显著差异。研究结果揭示了聚落模式在区域和时间上的显著差异，突出了农村转型与城市发展之间复杂的相互作用。本研究有助于理解发展中国家的农村转型过程，并强调在空间规划和农村振兴战略中需要采取差异化方法，以应对无序土地扩张和人口空心化的挑战，同时促进农村可持续发展。
