Hathout S
Department of Geography, University of Winnipeg, 515 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3B 2E9.
J Environ Manage. 2002 Nov;66(3):229-38.
Most urban growth in Canada occurs in the urban-rural fringe. The increasing dispersal of the Canadian urban population is due to centrifugal forces pulling urbanites past the suburbs into the surrounding exurban communities. Most Canadian urban centres are located on prime agricultural land. Exurban sprawl devours an inordinate amount of the better agricultural land. The growth around the city of Winnipeg is a case in point. Within Winnipeg's urban field are the rural municipalities of East and West St Paul. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of urban growth on the agricultural land of these RMs as well as the rate of urban growth in both Municipalities based on database analysis using aerial photographs taken in 1960 and 1989 and Geographic Information System (GIS). East St Paul was found to have a higher rate of urbanization (from 10.14% to 43.75%) between 1960 and 1989 than West St Paul (from 7.36% to 23.57%). The growth prediction using Markov probability chain analysis showed that East St Paul will henceforth experience a reduced rate of increase than West St Paul. The rate of urbanization for both RMs is found to be comparable with areas surrounding other major cities such as Toronto. The largest increases in urban land use categories occurred in and around the existing exurban settlements. It was found that most urbanization take place on the most fertile soil.
加拿大大部分城市增长发生在城乡边缘地带。加拿大城市人口日益分散，这是由于离心力将城市居民拉过郊区，进入周边的远郊社区。加拿大大多数城市中心位于优质农田上。远郊扩张吞噬了大量优质农田。温尼伯市周边的增长就是一个例证。在温尼伯市的城市区域内有东圣保罗和西圣保罗这两个农村自治市。本研究的目的是基于对1960年和1989年航拍照片及地理信息系统（GIS）的数据库分析，调查城市增长对这些农村自治市农田的影响以及两个自治市的城市增长速度。研究发现，1960年至1989年期间，东圣保罗的城市化率（从10.14%升至43.75%）高于西圣保罗（从7.36%升至23.57%）。使用马尔可夫概率链分析进行的增长预测表明，此后东圣保罗的增长率将低于西圣保罗。研究发现，这两个农村自治市的城市化率与多伦多等其他主要城市周边地区相当。城市土地利用类别增加最多的区域出现在现有的远郊定居点及其周边。研究发现，大多数城市化发生在最肥沃的土壤上。
