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1990年至2021年饮食相关风险因素所致慢性病负担趋势及到2030年的全球预测:一项基于人群的研究。

Trends in the burden of chronic diseases attributable to diet-related risk factors from 1990 to 2021 and the global projections through 2030: a population-based study.

作者信息

Ma Huan, Wang Minyan, Qin Chu, Shi Yun, Mandizadza Oscar Onayi, Ni Haojie, Ji Conghua

机构信息

School of Public Health, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.

School of Human Sciences, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.

出版信息

Front Nutr. 2025 May 9;12:1570321. doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1570321. eCollection 2025.


DOI:10.3389/fnut.2025.1570321
PMID:40416367
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12098078/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: The global burden of diet-related chronic diseases and their future projections remain unclear. To address this gap, we present the latest data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributable to dietary factors from 1990 to 2021, focusing on noncommunicable diseases worldwide. Additionally, we provide predictions of mortality rates across different age groups through 2030. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were analyzed to evaluate correlations between dietary factors and trends in chronic disease burden over a 30-year period. Moreover, we predicted the burden of chronic dietary diseases up to 2030. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates associated with dietary factors decreased by approximately one-third for neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, neoplasm-related deaths showed a stronger correlation with dietary factors, particularly high red meat intake. In cardiovascular diseases, the leading dietary factors are low-grain diets, whereas in diabetes, it is due to increased intake of processed meat. In low-SDI regions, diets low in vegetables showed the strongest association with neoplasm-related mortality, while diets low in fruits were significantly linked to CVD and diabetes burden. High-sodium diet was a significant risk factor for CVD in the middle-SDI regions. Moreover, the 2030 projections indicated a decline in mortality from neoplasms and CVDs, with a slight increase in mortality rates from diabetes. CONCLUSION: The global burden of chronic diseases linked to dietary factors shows varying trends across different countries and regions, particularly influenced by their economic development levels. This variation underscores the necessity of enhancing dietary structures to mitigate chronic disease prevalence and foster overall health.

摘要

背景:与饮食相关的慢性病的全球负担及其未来预测仍不明确。为填补这一空白,我们展示了1990年至2021年归因于饮食因素的死亡和伤残调整生命年的最新数据,重点关注全球的非传染性疾病。此外,我们还提供了到2030年不同年龄组死亡率的预测。 方法:分析了全球疾病负担研究2021的数据,以评估饮食因素与30年期间慢性病负担趋势之间的相关性。此外,我们预测了到2030年慢性饮食疾病的负担。 结果:1990年至2021年,与饮食因素相关的全球年龄标准化死亡率和伤残调整生命年(DALY)率在肿瘤和心血管疾病(CVD)方面下降了约三分之一。在高社会人口指数(SDI)地区,与肿瘤相关的死亡与饮食因素的相关性更强,尤其是红肉摄入量高。在心血管疾病方面,主要饮食因素是低谷物饮食,而在糖尿病方面,则是加工肉类摄入量增加。在低SDI地区,蔬菜摄入量低的饮食与肿瘤相关死亡率的关联最强,而水果摄入量低的饮食与CVD和糖尿病负担显著相关。高钠饮食是中SDI地区CVD的一个重要危险因素。此外,2030年的预测表明肿瘤和CVD死亡率下降,糖尿病死亡率略有上升。 结论:与饮食因素相关的慢性病全球负担在不同国家和地区呈现出不同趋势,尤其受其经济发展水平影响。这种差异凸显了改善饮食结构以降低慢性病患病率和促进整体健康的必要性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/6fc6c08610c0/fnut-12-1570321-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/485246ec54d7/fnut-12-1570321-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/1b2c1ddc1148/fnut-12-1570321-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/845e43b8f6ee/fnut-12-1570321-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/233d8f9f2322/fnut-12-1570321-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/6fc6c08610c0/fnut-12-1570321-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/485246ec54d7/fnut-12-1570321-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/1b2c1ddc1148/fnut-12-1570321-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/845e43b8f6ee/fnut-12-1570321-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/233d8f9f2322/fnut-12-1570321-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/68a3/12098078/6fc6c08610c0/fnut-12-1570321-g005.jpg

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引用本文的文献

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Dietary attribution to burden of chronic disease in Australia: a systematic analysis of the Australian Institute of health and welfare 2024 national burden of disease dataset.

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Optimal dietary patterns for healthy aging.

Nat Med. 2025-5

[2]
Association of Mediterranean Diet with Cardiovascular Risk Factors and with Metabolic Syndrome in Subjects with Long COVID: BioICOPER Study.

Nutrients. 2025-2-12

[3]
Gender differences in adherence and retention in Mediterranean diet interventions with a weight-loss outcome: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Obes Rev. 2024-12

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Integration of epidemiological and blood biomarker analysis links haem iron intake to increased type 2 diabetes risk.

Nat Metab. 2024-9

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Lancet. 2024-5-18

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Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

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Lancet. 2024-5-18

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Secular Trends in Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Attributable to Dietary Carcinogens From 1990 to 2019 and Projections Until 2044 in China: Population-Based Study.

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[10]
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