Wei Qian, Zhou Bingrong, Wang Wenying
College of Geographic Sciences, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810016, China.
Qinghai Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Xining 810008, China.
Biology (Basel). 2025 May 1;14(5):494. doi: 10.3390/biology14050494.
Quantitative exploration of shifts in regional vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and their driving factors holds immense importance in unraveling the mechanisms steering vegetation alterations, comprehending the impact of climate variations and human interventions on NPP, and guiding ecological management. Despite this significance, there is a scarcity of research reports on Qinghai Province. The aim is to dissect the influences of climate change and human activities on Qinghai's vegetation NPP and to estimate the growth potential of livestock carrying capacity. This study addresses the gap by juxtaposing the characteristics of climate-induced potential NPP changes, computed using the Zhou Guangsheng model, with actual NPP changes, calculated via the CASA model. Our findings underscore climate factors as the predominant drivers of Qinghai's vegetation NPP, accounting for 64.6% of the total area. Regions influenced by human activities contribute 34.3%, while unchanged areas constitute 2%. Climate emerges as the primary catalyst for increased vegetation NPP in Qinghai, encompassing 87% of the total area, with 73% attributed to climate factors across all counties. Conversely, human activities predominantly lead to decreased NPP, affecting 11% of the total area. Notably, 99% of the reduced NPP is attributable to human activities, concentrated in Golmud, Mangya, and Dulan counties in the northwest. Examining the growth potential of livestock carrying capacity from 1982 to 2018 reveals a consistent upward trajectory in Qinghai Province. The average annual growth potential per unit area escalates from 0.38 SHU/ha in 1982 to 0.56 SHU/ha in 2018. By 2018, regions exhibiting positive growth potential encompass 95% of the province, with areas exceeding 1 SHU/ha constituting 9%, primarily situated in the eastern part of Qinghai Province.
定量探究区域植被净初级生产力（NPP）的变化及其驱动因素，对于揭示植被变化机制、理解气候变化和人类活动对NPP的影响以及指导生态管理具有极其重要的意义。尽管具有重要意义，但关于青海省的研究报告却很匮乏。目的是剖析气候变化和人类活动对青海植被NPP的影响，并估算载畜量的增长潜力。本研究通过将使用周广生模型计算的气候诱导潜在NPP变化特征与通过CASA模型计算的实际NPP变化进行对比，填补了这一空白。我们的研究结果强调气候因素是青海植被NPP的主要驱动因素，占总面积的64.6%。受人类活动影响的区域占34.3%，未变化区域占2%。气候是青海植被NPP增加的主要催化剂，占总面积的87%，所有县中73%归因于气候因素。相反，人类活动主要导致NPP下降，影响总面积的11%。值得注意的是，99%的NPP下降归因于人类活动，集中在西北部的格尔木市、茫崖市和都兰县。对1982年至2018年载畜量增长潜力的研究表明，青海省呈持续上升趋势。单位面积的年均增长潜力从1982年的0.38羊单位/公顷升至2018年的0.56羊单位/公顷。到2018年，呈现正增长潜力的区域占全省的95%，超过1羊单位/公顷的区域占9%，主要位于青海省东部。
