Divergent Climate Sensitivity and Spatiotemporal Instability in Radial Growth of Natural and Planted Forests Across a Latitudinal Gradient.

A deeper understanding of growth-climate relationships in natural forests (NFs) and planted forests (PFs) is crucial for the prediction of climate change impacts on forest productivity. Yet, the mechanisms and divergences in climatic responses between these forest types remain debated. This study investigated NFs and PFs in China using tree-ring chronologies to analyze their radial growth responses to climatic factors and associated temporal-spatial dynamics. The results reveal significant negative correlations between radial growth and mean temperatures (Tmean) in August of the previous year and June of the current year, and positive correlations were observed with the September standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) of the previous year and May precipitation (PPT) and SPEI of the current year. Compared with NFs, PFs exhibited a heightened climatic sensitivity, with stronger inhibitory effects from prior- and current-year growing-season temperatures and greater SPEI influences during the growing season. Moving window analysis demonstrated higher temporal variability and more frequent short-term correlation shifts in PF growth-climate relationships. Spatially, NFs displayed latitudinal divergence, autumn Tmean shifted from growth-suppressive in southern regions to growth-promotive in the north, and winter SPEI transitioned from positive to negative correlations along the same gradient. However, PFs showed no significant spatial patterns. Relative importance analysis highlighted water availability (PPT and SPEI) as the dominant driver of NF growth, whereas temperature, moisture, and solar radiation co-regulated PF growth. These findings provide critical insights into climate-driven growth divergences between forest types and offer scientific support for the optimization of NF conservation and PF management under accelerating climate change.