McLeod Deanna, Martins Ilidio, Tinker Anna V, Selk Amanda, Brezden-Masley Christine, LeVasseur Nathalie, Altman Alon D
Kaleidoscope Strategic Inc., Toronto, ON, Canada.
BC Cancer Agency, BC Cancer-Vancouver Centre, University of British Columbia, 600 West 10th Avenue, 4th Floor, Vancouver, BC V5Z 4E6, Canada.
Ther Adv Med Oncol. 2025 May 26;17:17588359251339919. doi: 10.1177/17588359251339919. eCollection 2025.
BACKGROUND: The initial response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Ontario included suspension of cancer screening programs and deferral of diagnostic procedures and many treatments. Although the short-term impact of these measures on female cancers is well documented, few studies have assessed the mid- to long-term impacts. OBJECTIVES: To compare annual billing prevalence and incidence rates of female cancers during the COVID-19 period (2020-2022) to pre-COVID-19 levels (2015-2019). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of aggregated claims data for female cancer diagnostic codes from the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP). METHODS: Linear regression analysis was used to fit pre-COVID-19 (2015-2019) data for each OHIP billing code and extrapolate counterfactual values for the years of 2020-2022. Excess billing rates were calculated as the difference between projected and actual rates for each year. RESULTS: In 2020, OHIP billing prevalence rates for cervical, breast, uterine, and ovarian cancers decreased relative to projected values for that year by -50.7/100k, -13.9/100k, -3.5/100k, and -3.8/100k, respectively. The reverse was observed in 2021 with rate increases of 47.8/100k, 59.1/100k, 2.5/100k, and 3.7/100k, respectively. In 2022, the excesses were further amplified, especially for cervical and breast cancers (111.2/100k and 78.67/100k, respectively). The net excess patient billing rate for 2020-2022 was largely positive for all female cancer types (108.3/100k, 123.7/100k, 5.2/100k, and 1.8/100k, respectively). Analysis of billing incidence rates showed similar trends. CONCLUSION: The expected female cancer billing rate decreases in 2020 were followed by large increases in 2021 and 2022, resulting in a cumulative excess during the COVID-19 period. Further research is required to assess the nature of these changes.
背景:安大略省对2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的最初应对措施包括暂停癌症筛查项目、推迟诊断程序和许多治疗。尽管这些措施对女性癌症的短期影响已有充分记录,但很少有研究评估其中长期影响。 目的:比较COVID-19期间(2020 - 2022年)与COVID-19之前(2015 - 2019年)女性癌症的年度计费患病率和发病率。 设计:对安大略省医疗保险计划(OHIP)中女性癌症诊断代码的汇总索赔数据进行回顾性分析。 方法:使用线性回归分析对每个OHIP计费代码的COVID-19之前(2015 - 2019年)数据进行拟合,并推断2020 - 2022年的反事实值。计算每年的超额计费率,即各年预测率与实际率之间的差值。 结果:2020年,宫颈癌、乳腺癌、子宫癌和卵巢癌的OHIP计费患病率相对于当年预测值分别下降了-50.7/10万、-13.9/10万、-3.5/10万和-3.8/10万。2021年情况相反,患病率分别上升了47.8/10万、59.1/10万、2.5/10万和3.7/10万。2022年,超额情况进一步加剧,尤其是宫颈癌和乳腺癌(分别为111.2/10万和78.67/10万)。2020 - 2022年所有女性癌症类型的患者超额计费率净增长在很大程度上为正值(分别为108.3/10万、123.7/10万、5.2/10万和1.8/10万)。计费发病率分析显示了类似趋势。 结论:2020年女性癌症预期计费率下降之后,2021年和2022年大幅上升,导致COVID-19期间出现累计超额。需要进一步研究以评估这些变化的性质。
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