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研究投资者关注度对人工智能相关股票的影响:使用分位数回归、广义自回归条件异方差模型和自回归整合移动平均模型的综合分析

Investigating the impact of investor attention on AI-based stocks: A comprehensive analysis using quantile regression, GARCH, and ARIMA models.

作者信息

Ravichandran Sweena, Afjal Mohd

机构信息

VIT Business School, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, India.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 May 28;20(5):e0324450. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324450. eCollection 2025.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0324450
PMID:40435172
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12118928/
Abstract

The literature implies an increased interest in AI-based companies, but it is unclear how investor attention affects their volatility. This study fills the gap by investigating the relationship between investor attention, as measured by Google Trends data, and the volatility of AI-based stocks. Using weekly adjusted closing stock price data for 8 AI-based stocks from 2015 to 2024, quantile regression analysis was used to identify the impact of investor attention at various volatility levels. Though the direction of the effect differs, the data shows that investor attention has a considerable impact on the volatility of AI-based companies. Although most stocks show a positive relationship, Tencent Holding's unique traits or market dynamics impact its response to investor attention. The study uses GARCH and ARIMA models to investigate stock volatility dynamics across time. The findings of this study show that market information changes are critical in driving volatility variations. This study provides insights into the intricate relationship between investor attention and market volatility, with substantial implications for investors and policymakers. Understanding these processes can help investors make educated decisions and allocate resources more effectively, while regulators can devise policies to reduce possible risks and promote market stability.

摘要

文献表明对人工智能相关公司的兴趣有所增加,但尚不清楚投资者关注如何影响其波动性。本研究通过调查以谷歌趋势数据衡量的投资者关注与人工智能相关股票的波动性之间的关系来填补这一空白。利用2015年至2024年8只人工智能相关股票的每周调整后收盘价数据,采用分位数回归分析来确定投资者关注在不同波动水平下的影响。尽管影响方向不同,但数据表明投资者关注对人工智能相关公司的波动性有相当大的影响。虽然大多数股票呈现正相关关系,但腾讯控股的独特特征或市场动态影响了其对投资者关注的反应。该研究使用GARCH和ARIMA模型来研究股票波动性随时间的动态变化。本研究结果表明,市场信息变化对推动波动性变化至关重要。本研究深入探讨了投资者关注与市场波动性之间的复杂关系,对投资者和政策制定者具有重大意义。了解这些过程有助于投资者做出明智决策并更有效地分配资源,而监管机构可以制定政策以降低潜在风险并促进市场稳定。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5f5/12118928/d84ca48185af/pone.0324450.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5f5/12118928/a1b333fbb8f8/pone.0324450.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5f5/12118928/a5b8f7676e7e/pone.0324450.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5f5/12118928/d84ca48185af/pone.0324450.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5f5/12118928/a1b333fbb8f8/pone.0324450.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5f5/12118928/a5b8f7676e7e/pone.0324450.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e5f5/12118928/d84ca48185af/pone.0324450.g003.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Effects of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic on implied stock market volatility: International evidence using a google trend measure.新冠疫情第一波对隐含股市波动率的影响:使用谷歌趋势测度的国际证据
J Econ Asymmetries. 2023 Nov;28:e00317. doi: 10.1016/j.jeca.2023.e00317. Epub 2023 Jun 12.
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The impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese stock market: Sentimental or substantial?新冠疫情对中国股市的影响:是情绪因素还是实质影响?
Financ Res Lett. 2021 Jan;38:101838. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101838. Epub 2020 Nov 12.
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Stock Market Volatility and Return Analysis: A Systematic Literature Review.
股票市场波动性与回报分析:一项系统性文献综述
Entropy (Basel). 2020 May 4;22(5):522. doi: 10.3390/e22050522.
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The impact of COVID-19 on the degree of dependence and structure of risk-return relationship: A quantile regression approach.新冠疫情对依赖程度及风险-回报关系结构的影响:一种分位数回归方法。
Financ Res Lett. 2020 Oct;36:101648. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101648. Epub 2020 Jun 25.