Nonnenmacher Lars, Fischer Maximilian, Kaderali Lars, Wassilew Georgi I
Center for Orthopaedics, Trauma Surgery and Rehabilitation Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Institute of Bioinformatics, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Bone Jt Open. 2025 Jun 1;6(6 Supple B):33-42. doi: 10.1302/2633-1462.66.BJO-2024-0257.R1.
AIMS: Periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) is the primary surgical treatment for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH), providing considerable pain relief and improved joint function. Return to sport (RTS) is a key outcome for young, active patients. This study aimed to identify preoperative predictors of RTS timing and develop a machine-learning-based prediction model to optimize patient counselling. METHODS: This retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data included 235 patients who underwent PAO between January 2019 and December 2023. Preoperative variables, including demographic, functional, and psychological assessments, were analyzed. RTS was assessed at three, six, and 12 months postoperatively. Logistic regression with recursive feature elimination and a conditional inference tree (ctree) model were used to identify predictors of RTS. RESULTS: At three months, 102 patients (43%) had returned to sports, increasing to 182 (77%) at six months and 223 (95%) at 12 months. Key predictors of early RTS included the minimally invasive surgical approach, higher preoperative physical activity (≥ two sessions/week), lower anxiety scores, and higher Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS) pain scores. Male sex and older age were associated with delayed RTS. The ctree model stratified patients based on their likelihood of early RTS, providing an individualized prognosis. CONCLUSION: PAO enables early RTS in over 90% of patients within the first year. The use of a minimally invasive approach allowing immediate active hip flexion, higher preoperative activity levels, and lower anxiety scores significantly improves RTS timing. The machine-learning model provides precise, individualized RTS predictions, offering a valuable tool for patient counselling and rehabilitation planning.
目的:髋臼周围截骨术(PAO)是发育性髋关节发育不良(DDH)的主要手术治疗方法,可显著缓解疼痛并改善关节功能。恢复运动(RTS)是年轻、活跃患者的关键预后指标。本研究旨在确定RTS时间的术前预测因素,并开发基于机器学习的预测模型以优化患者咨询。 方法:这项对前瞻性收集数据的回顾性分析纳入了2019年1月至2023年12月期间接受PAO的235例患者。分析术前变量,包括人口统计学、功能和心理评估。在术后3个月、6个月和12个月评估RTS情况。使用带有递归特征消除的逻辑回归和条件推断树(ctree)模型来确定RTS的预测因素。 结果:3个月时,102例患者(43%)恢复运动,6个月时增至182例(77%),12个月时为223例(95%)。早期RTS的关键预测因素包括微创外科手术入路、较高的术前身体活动水平(≥每周两次)、较低的焦虑评分以及较高的髋关节残疾和骨关节炎结果评分(HOOS)疼痛评分。男性和年龄较大与RTS延迟有关。ctree模型根据患者早期RTS的可能性对其进行分层,提供个性化预后。 结论:PAO能使超过90%的患者在第一年内早期恢复运动。采用允许立即进行主动髋关节屈曲的微创方法、较高的术前活动水平和较低的焦虑评分可显著改善RTS时间。机器学习模型提供精确的个性化RTS预测,为患者咨询和康复计划提供了有价值的工具。
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