Haider Najmul, Hasan Mohammad Nayeem, Onyango Joshua, Billah Masum, Khan Sakirul, Papakonstantinou Danai, Paudyal Priyamvada, Asaduzzaman Md
School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, United Kingdom.
Department of Statistics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
Int J Infect Dis. 2025 Sep;158:107940. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107940. Epub 2025 May 29.
Dengue, caused by the dengue virus (DENV), is the fastest-growing mosquito-borne disease worldwide. We utilised monthly data on dengue cases and deaths reported through the World Health Organisation's (WHO) global surveillance system for the period of 1 January to 31 December 2024. We then performed a generalised linear regression model to understand country-level determinants of dengue-related mortality. In 2024, 14.1 million dengue cases were reported globally, surpassing the historic milestone of 7 million observed in 2023. This figure represents a twofold increase compared to 2023 and a 12-fold rise compared to 2014 (n=1,206,644). In 2024, 9,508 dengue-related deaths were recorded, resulting in a global case-fatality rate of 0.07%. In the regression analysis, countries in the Southern hemisphere (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 5.95, 95% CI: 4.19-8.46), aged population (IRR 1.04, CI: 1.01-1.07), and mean annual temperature (IRR 1.21, CI: 1.16-1.26) were significantly associated with higher dengue-related mortality per million population. The ongoing dengue outbreak underscores the urgent need for global investment in DENV research, vaccine development, vector control, and therapeutic strategies. We urge the inclusion of DENV in the WHO's Research and Development Priority Disease list to address this growing global health threat.
登革热由登革病毒（DENV）引起，是全球增长最快的蚊媒疾病。我们利用了通过世界卫生组织（WHO）全球监测系统报告的2024年1月1日至12月31日期间登革热病例和死亡的月度数据。然后，我们进行了广义线性回归模型，以了解国家层面登革热相关死亡率的决定因素。2024年，全球报告了1410万例登革热病例，超过了2023年观察到的700万这一历史里程碑。这一数字与2023年相比增长了两倍，与2014年（n = 1,206,644）相比增长了12倍。2024年，记录了9508例登革热相关死亡病例，全球病死率为0.07%。在回归分析中，南半球国家（发病率比[IRR]：5.95，95%置信区间：4.19 - 8.46）、老年人口（IRR 1.04，置信区间：1.01 - 1.07）和年平均温度（IRR 1.21，置信区间：1.16 - 1.26）与每百万人口中较高的登革热相关死亡率显著相关。持续的登革热疫情凸显了全球对登革病毒研究、疫苗开发、病媒控制和治疗策略进行投资的迫切需求。我们敦促将登革病毒纳入世界卫生组织的研发优先疾病清单，以应对这一日益严重的全球健康威胁。
