Mahanta Kirti Kumar, Pradhan Ipshita Priyadarsini, Dhiman Nitesh, Singh Ankit, Shukla Dericks Praise
DExtER Lab, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi, 175005, India.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jun 2;15(1):19262. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-03921-9.
Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are causing rapid changes in the Himalayan ecosystem. Changes in climatic conditions affect various aspects of high mountain environments, including glaciers, rock glaciers, and permafrost, and pose significant threats to indigenous mountain communities. This study investigates the first case of permafrost thaw-induced subsidence in the Lindur Village of Lahaul & Spiti district of Himachal Pradesh using MT-InSAR method. We used 15 Sentinel-1 single-look complex images acquired from April 2022 to September 2022 along the ascending orbit track and used the SBAS technique to monitor the subsidence in the village. The results revealed significant land subsidence rates ranging from 7.9 to -6.8 cm/year. The cumulative land subsidence of 16 cm was observed over the northeast direction of the village. The analysis of historical temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2024 shows a significant rise in temperature at a rate of 0.02 °C/year and a shift in precipitation pattern over the village. From the field observations, the study found that the local geology and existing rock glaciers exacerbate the rate of subsidence leading to the development of cracks in the region. This is the first study that provides a detailed insight into the interaction of climatic, geological, and hydrological factors that drive permafrost thaw causing land subsidence in the Indian Tethyan Himalayas. The quantified deformation rates provide crucial information for developing targeted mitigation strategies and early warning systems.
气温上升和降水模式变化正在导致喜马拉雅生态系统迅速改变。气候条件的变化影响着高山环境的各个方面，包括冰川、岩石冰川和永久冻土，并对当地山区社区构成重大威胁。本研究采用MT-InSAR方法，调查了喜马偕尔邦拉胡尔-斯皮提地区林杜尔村首例因永久冻土融化导致的地面沉降情况。我们使用了2022年4月至2022年9月沿升轨轨道获取的15幅哨兵-1单视复数影像，并运用SBAS技术监测该村的沉降情况。结果显示，地面沉降速率显著，范围在7.9至-6.8厘米/年之间。在村庄的东北方向观测到累计16厘米的地面沉降。对1950年至2024年历史气温和降水数据的分析表明，气温以每年0.02°C的速率显著上升，且村庄的降水模式发生了变化。通过实地观测，研究发现当地地质和现有的岩石冰川加剧了沉降速率，导致该地区出现裂缝。这是第一项详细深入研究气候、地质和水文因素相互作用的研究，这些因素导致印度特提斯喜马拉雅地区永久冻土融化并引发地面沉降。量化的变形速率为制定有针对性的缓解策略和早期预警系统提供了关键信息。
