Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.
Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON-K1A 0E8, Canada.
Nat Commun. 2019 Jan 16;10(1):264. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4.
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
多年冻土变暖有可能放大全球气候变化,因为当冻结的沉积物融化时,它会释放出土壤有机碳。然而,迄今为止,还没有对多年冻土温度变化进行全球一致的评估。在这里,我们使用全球多年冻土网络的多年冻土温度时间序列数据集,评估自国际极地年(2007-2009 年)以来多年冻土地区的温度变化。在 2007 年至 2016 年的参考十年期间,连续多年冻土区深度为零年振幅的地面温度升高了 0.39±0.15°C。在此期间,不连续多年冻土升温 0.20±0.10°C。山区多年冻土升温 0.19±0.05°C,南极洲升温 0.37±0.10°C。全球多年冻土温度升高 0.29±0.12°C。观测到的趋势与北半球北极地区空气温度升高的北极放大效应一致。然而,在不连续区,地面变暖是由于积雪厚度增加所致,而空气温度在统计上保持不变。