Liu Ruizhi, Rothe Frederic, Lames Martin
China Table Tennis College, Shanghai University of Sport, 650 Qingyuanhuan Road, Shanghai, 200438, China.
School of Medicine and Health, Technical University of Munich, Georg-Brauchle-Ring 60/62, 80992, Munich, Germany.
BMC Sports Sci Med Rehabil. 2025 Jun 3;17(1):140. doi: 10.1186/s13102-025-01183-6.
Technique and tactics are key elements in assessing table tennis performance and have been widely studied. However, most existing methods classify shots solely by sequence or shot number, overlooking the tactical attributes and their impact on rally outcomes. The First Offensive Shot (FOS) model attempted to address this issue but remained too coarse-grained. To overcome these limitations, this study introduces the Enhanced FOS model (EFOS), which integrates shot type and shot number into a more refined state-transition framework. This novel approach provides a more detailed representation of rally dynamics, enabling a deeper analysis of rally progression.
The EFOS model divides a rally into three phases: the pre-offensive phase (POP), the initial-offensive phase (IOP), and the final-offensive phase (FOP). Each phase is further categorised based on shot type and shot number. Transition probabilities between states were computed. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on 105 men's and women's singles matches from the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020, with gender, ranking, and match results as independent variables.
The IOP accounts for the highest usage (70.6%) among the three phases, with FOS and the following shot-FOS + 1-rank second. Male players tend to use defensive techniques to return shots and attack later, whereas female players prefer to attack defensive shots directly. High-ranked players (≤ 40) demonstrated superior transition efficiency and lower error rates, particularly in the IOP, while winners consistently exhibited higher transition rates and fewer errors across all phases.
Firstly, the initial-offensive phase emerges as pivotal, with the first offensive shot and the subsequent shot significantly influencing rally outcomes. Secondly, attacking defensive shots have proven to be more effective than attacking serves. Thirdly, male players outperform female players in both initial and subsequent attack. These findings offer practical insights for players and coaches, suggesting that training should emphasise the initial-offensive phase and focus on reducing errors during transitions, particularly for low-ranked players. Additionally, gender-specific training strategies may be developed to address the observed performance differences.
技术和战术是评估乒乓球表现的关键要素，并且已经得到广泛研究。然而，大多数现有方法仅根据击球顺序或击球次数对击球进行分类，忽略了战术属性及其对回合结果的影响。首次进攻击球（FOS）模型试图解决这一问题，但仍然过于粗糙。为了克服这些局限性，本研究引入了增强型FOS模型（EFOS），该模型将击球类型和击球次数整合到一个更精细的状态转换框架中。这种新颖的方法提供了对回合动态更详细的描述，能够对回合进程进行更深入的分析。
EFOS模型将一个回合分为三个阶段：进攻前阶段（POP）、首次进攻阶段（IOP）和最终进攻阶段（FOP）。每个阶段根据击球类型和击球次数进一步分类。计算状态之间的转移概率。以性别、排名和比赛结果作为自变量，对2020年东京奥运会的105场男子和女子单打比赛进行了全面分析。
在三个阶段中，首次进攻阶段的使用率最高（70.6%），首次进攻击球和随后的击球——FOS+1——并列第二。男性球员倾向于使用防守技术回球，然后再进行进攻，而女性球员则更喜欢直接攻击防守球。排名靠前的球员（≤40）表现出更高的转换效率和更低的失误率，尤其是在首次进攻阶段，而获胜者在所有阶段始终表现出更高的转换率和更少的失误。
首先，首次进攻阶段是关键阶段，首次进攻击球和随后的击球对回合结果有显著影响。其次，事实证明，攻击防守球比攻击发球更有效。第三，男性球员在初始进攻和后续进攻方面都优于女性球员。这些发现为球员和教练提供了实用的见解，表明训练应强调首次进攻阶段，并专注于减少转换过程中的失误，特别是对于排名较低的球员。此外，可以制定针对性别的训练策略来解决观察到的表现差异。
