van den Bosch M, Costanza J K, Peek R A, Steel Z L
Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Jun;31(6):e70272. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70272.
Climate change intensifies periods of climate extremes globally, threatening biodiversity. Vertebrates vulnerable to climate extremes are identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, though future changes in these species' exposure remain unclear. Using CMIP6 climate models under four shared socioeconomic pathways, we projected changes in extreme drought, heat, and precipitation frequencies between 1974-2014 and 2050-2090 for 1634 terrestrial vertebrates considered threatened by climate extremes, focusing on 33 vertebrate diversity hotspots. Results indicate substantial exposure increases, with tropical regions facing the largest relative increases in extreme heat and drought. Hotspots with fewer vertebrates considered vulnerable to climate extremes often face larger increases in climate extremes, suggesting vertebrate vulnerability within numerous hotspots is understudied. These results highlight the need to widely incorporate climate projections into conservation assessments, and for targeted research on the effects of climate extremes on tropical vertebrates, which may have lower tolerances to climatic change than temperate counterparts.
气候变化加剧了全球气候极端事件的发生频率，威胁着生物多样性。国际自然保护联盟确定了易受气候极端事件影响的脊椎动物，不过这些物种未来面临的暴露变化仍不明朗。利用四个共享社会经济路径下的CMIP6气候模型，我们预测了1634种被认为受到气候极端事件威胁的陆生脊椎动物在1974 - 2014年至2050 - 2090年期间极端干旱、高温和降水频率的变化，重点关注33个脊椎动物多样性热点地区。结果表明暴露程度大幅增加，热带地区面临的极端高温和干旱的相对增幅最大。被认为易受气候极端事件影响的脊椎动物较少的热点地区，往往面临更大的气候极端事件增幅，这表明众多热点地区内脊椎动物的脆弱性尚未得到充分研究。这些结果凸显了将气候预测广泛纳入保护评估的必要性，以及针对气候极端事件对热带脊椎动物影响的针对性研究的必要性，热带脊椎动物对气候变化的耐受性可能低于温带脊椎动物。
