Li Xiaodong, Geng Zhe, Lin Qinqin, Kindong Richard, Wang Yang, Zhu Jiangfeng
College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China.
College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China; Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China; Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China; National Engineering Research Centre for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2025 Oct;219:118241. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118241. Epub 2025 Jun 4.
Ocean warming may alter food web structure and species interactions in pelagic ecosystems, significantly impacting tuna population dynamics. However, few studies have assessed those impacts from the perspective of species interaction and ecosystems. In this study, we developed a multi-species size-spectrum model (MSSM) incorporating Chinese longline fisheries data and public datasets to assess ocean warming effects on the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) ecosystem under four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Our results demonstrate that ocean warming will affect natural mortality, mean body weight, and biomass and production of large pelagic species, including tunas, billfishes, and sharks in the WCPO. We found that ocean warming had greater impacts on billfishes and sharks growth and reproduction than on tunas, with Shortbill spearfish showing the most severe declines: >5 % in growth energy rates and > 7.5 % in reproduction energy rates under SSP5-8.5 versus SSP1-2.6 by 2100. The prediction results show that ocean warming has a greater impact on the natural mortality rate of some shark species than other species. By the end of the 21st century (2100), the natural mortality rate of Blue shark and Oceanic whitetip shark will increase by 8 % under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Overall, ocean warming will cause changes in the structure of the WCPO pelagic ecosystem. The study offers scientific support for developing sustainable tuna fisheries and implementing climate-adaptive management strategies in response to future climate change.
海洋变暖可能会改变远洋生态系统中的食物网结构和物种相互作用，对金枪鱼种群动态产生重大影响。然而，很少有研究从物种相互作用和生态系统的角度评估这些影响。在本研究中，我们开发了一个多物种大小谱模型（MSSM），纳入中国延绳钓渔业数据和公共数据集，以评估在四种气候情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5）下海洋变暖对西太平洋和中太平洋（WCPO）生态系统的影响。我们的结果表明，海洋变暖将影响WCPO中包括金枪鱼、旗鱼和鲨鱼在内的大型远洋物种的自然死亡率、平均体重、生物量和产量。我们发现，海洋变暖对旗鱼和鲨鱼生长与繁殖的影响比对金枪鱼的影响更大，短吻枪鱼的下降最为严重：到2100年，在SSP5-8.5情景下与SSP1-2.6情景相比，生长能量率下降>5%，繁殖能量率下降>7.5%。预测结果表明，海洋变暖对某些鲨鱼物种自然死亡率的影响大于其他物种。到21世纪末（2100年），在SSP5-8.5情景下，蓝鲨和远洋白鳍鲨的自然死亡率与SSP1-2.6情景相比将增加8%。总体而言，海洋变暖将导致WCPO远洋生态系统结构发生变化。该研究为发展可持续金枪鱼渔业和实施应对未来气候变化的气候适应性管理策略提供了科学支持。
