Shinnar S, Vining E P, Mellits E D, D'Souza B J, Holden K, Baumgardner R A, Freeman J M
N Engl J Med. 1985 Oct 17;313(16):976-80. doi: 10.1056/NEJM198510173131603.
Antiepileptic medications were discontinued in 88 children with epilepsy of various causes who had been free of seizures for two to four years. The subjects were then followed for six months to five years (mean, 22 months). Sixty-six (75 per cent) remained free of seizures. Electroencephalographic characteristics, type of seizure, and age at onset were important in predicting outcome. Specific electroencephalographic features (such as the presence or absence of slowing or spikes) were more predictive than simple classification of an electroencephalogram as normal or abnormal. A history of complex partial seizures that had been controlled for two years carried a relatively favorable prognosis (P less than 0.05), whereas a history of atypical febrile seizures carried a poor prognosis (P less than 0.05). The variable of a younger age at onset was also associated with a better outcome (P less than 0.05), but only if accompanied by electroencephalographic slowing. Altogether, six variables (the interaction of age at onset with electroencephalographic slowing, electroencephalographic spikes, atypical febrile seizures, complex partial seizures, electroencephalographic slowing, and electroencephalographic change) were statistically significant (P less than 0.05) in predicting outcome. We conclude that in most children with epilepsy who have been free of seizures for two or more years, antiepileptic medications can safely be discontinued, and that it is possible to predict reasonably well which children will remain free of seizures.
88名患有各种病因癫痫的儿童在无癫痫发作两至四年后停用抗癫痫药物。随后对这些受试者进行了6个月至5年的随访(平均22个月)。66名(75%)儿童仍无癫痫发作。脑电图特征、癫痫发作类型和发病年龄对预测结果很重要。特定的脑电图特征(如是否存在慢波或棘波)比简单地将脑电图分类为正常或异常更具预测性。复杂部分性癫痫发作病史已得到控制两年的患者预后相对较好(P<0.05),而非典型热性惊厥病史的患者预后较差(P<0.05)。发病年龄较小这一变量也与较好的结果相关(P<0.05),但前提是伴有脑电图慢波。总体而言,六个变量(发病年龄与脑电图慢波、脑电图棘波、非典型热性惊厥、复杂部分性癫痫发作、脑电图慢波和脑电图变化的相互作用)在预测结果方面具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。我们得出结论,在大多数无癫痫发作两年或更长时间的癫痫儿童中,可以安全地停用抗癫痫药物,并且有可能较好地预测哪些儿童将继续无癫痫发作。