He Yuelin, Faul Jessica, Duchowny Kate, Li Chihua, Stebbins Rebecca, Noppert Grace A
Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Lancet Reg Health Am. 2025 May 12;47:101122. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2025.101122. eCollection 2025 Jul.
Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection has been indicted in the etiology of multiple aging-related diseases. We aimed to quantify the proportion of diseases that could be prevented with a potential CMV treatment among US older individuals.
We analyzed disease prevalence among 8934 eligible individuals from the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) in 2016-2020. In our hypothetical intervention, the treatment would improve immune control of CMV and shift the distribution of continuous CMV IgG antibody levels from the highest quartile to the lower 3 quartiles. We estimated top-quartile CMV level attributable fractions for 7 outcomes: heart diseases, stroke, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, cancers, diabetes, and difficulty with Activities of Daily Living using a novel logistic regression-based approach which allows for continuous covariate adjustment for counterfactual prevalence, stratified by gender and race/ethnicity.
In the study sample, a hypothetical intervention that decreased CMV IgG below the highest quartile level in 2016 would result in a 3·57 (95% Confidence Interval: 1·54, 5·60) percentage points reduction of diabetes cases and a 1·81 (95% CI: 0·75, 2·86) percentage points reduction of high blood pressure cases among Non-Hispanic White (NHW) women. Among NHW men, the same intervention would lead to a 2·43 (95% CI: 0·49, 4·37) percentage points reduction of diabetes, a 2·89 (95% CI: 0·93, 4·86) percentage points reduction of heart diseases and a 2·52 (95% CI: 1·39, 3·65) percentage points reduction of high blood pressure.
Our findings provide initial evidence for the potential population health impact of CMV intervention, specifically on high blood pressure, diabetes, and heart diseases.
National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging.
巨细胞病毒（CMV）感染被认为与多种衰老相关疾病的病因有关。我们旨在量化在美国老年人群中，通过潜在的CMV治疗可预防的疾病比例。
我们分析了2016 - 2020年美国健康与退休研究（HRS）中8934名符合条件个体的疾病患病率。在我们的假设干预中，该治疗将改善对CMV的免疫控制，并使连续CMV IgG抗体水平的分布从最高四分位数转移到较低的三个四分位数。我们使用一种基于逻辑回归的新方法，对心脏病、中风、高血压、高胆固醇、癌症、糖尿病和日常生活活动困难这7种结果估计最高四分位数CMV水平归因分数，该方法允许对反事实患病率进行连续协变量调整，并按性别和种族/族裔分层。
在研究样本中，假设在2016年将CMV IgG降低至最高四分位数水平以下的干预措施，将使非西班牙裔白人（NHW）女性中的糖尿病病例减少3.57（95%置信区间：1.54，5.60）个百分点，高血压病例减少1.81（95%置信区间：0.75，2.86）个百分点。在NHW男性中，相同的干预措施将导致糖尿病减少2.43（95%置信区间：0.49，4.37）个百分点，心脏病减少2.89（95%置信区间：0.93，,4.86）个百分点，高血压减少2.52（95%置信区间：1.39，3.65）个百分点。
我们的研究结果为CMV干预对人群健康的潜在影响提供了初步证据，特别是对高血压、糖尿病和心脏病的影响。
美国国立卫生研究院，国立衰老研究所。
