[With Immanuel Kant into the second wave of the current pandemic].

BACKGROUND

The efficacy of the most serious limitation of free movement of the German citizens since the end of the World War II and the Oil Crisis 1973 as intended countermeasure against the first wave of the pandemic is currently expected. The planning in regard to further action for the coming weeks and months has to take place now.

METHODS

With the help of the principles of the German philosopher Kant, the thinking and planning is framed.

RESULTS

The modelling by the researchers of the Imperial College, London, make an oversized second wave in autumn/winter 2020 most likely, if the current countermeasures are kept in place for too long. A timely relaxation of the measures is warranted to allow a staggered attack by the virus onto the population (German: "Durchseuchung") before the next influenza season 2020/2021 without overburdening the health care infrastructure especially the respiratory care bed capacity. The tempting perspective of a vaccine available before the second wave in autumn, should not lead to any delay in the intermittent relaxation of the countermeasures. A pre-licensure marginally tested vaccine would only be eligible for people with an anyway high risk in regard to SARS-CoV‑2.

CONCLUSIONS

Further, more detailed and from each other independent models on the basis of data from Germany are urgently needed. Upon these a heterogeneous trans-hierarchical committee would need to discuss and make decisions in regard to differentiated relaxations of measures given the high remaining uncertainties.