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大型技术系统中的灾害风险生成与级联灾害:新冠疫情与2021年得克萨斯州停电事件

Disaster risk creation and cascading disasters within large technological systems: COVID-19 and the 2021 Texas blackouts.

作者信息

Clark-Ginsberg Aaron, DeSmet David, Rueda Ismael A, Hagen Ryan, Hayduk Brian

机构信息

Pardee RAND Graduate School Santa Monica California USA.

Department of Sociology Columbia University New York New York USA.

出版信息

J Conting Crisis Manag. 2021 Dec;29(4):445-449. doi: 10.1111/1468-5973.12378. Epub 2021 Oct 12.

Abstract

Given the right organisational attributes and sets of incentives, power grids, water systems and other large technological systems can function reliably, even as high-reliability networks. However, high reliability remains 'unlikely, demanding and at risk' as organisational sociologist Todd La Porte stated 25 years ago. What is much more common is risk creation-the creation or exacerbation of hazard, increase in exposure and propagation of vulnerability-that can interact and cascade across these systems when realized as a disaster. Here we describe the 2021 Texas blackouts during the COVID-19 pandemic through this lens of disaster risk creation and cascading disaster, showing how risk emerges and propagates across large technological systems. Given their ubiquity and criticality, we argue that more research is desperately needed to understand how to support high-reliability networks and that more efforts should be made to invest in their resilience.

摘要

如果具备合适的组织属性和一系列激励措施,电网、供水系统和其他大型技术系统即便作为高可靠性网络,也能够可靠运行。然而,正如组织社会学家托德·拉波特25年前所说,实现高可靠性仍然“不太可能、要求苛刻且存在风险”。更为常见的是风险创造——即危险的产生或加剧、暴露程度的增加以及脆弱性的传播——当这种情况演变成灾难时,会在这些系统之间相互作用并引发连锁反应。在此,我们通过灾难风险创造和级联灾难这一视角来描述2021年新冠疫情期间得克萨斯州的停电事件,展示风险是如何在大型技术系统中出现并传播的。鉴于这些系统的普遍性和关键性,我们认为迫切需要开展更多研究,以了解如何支持高可靠性网络,并且应做出更多努力来投资提高其恢复力。

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