BACKGROUND

The Multidimensional Evaluation of Elderly Person Form (SVaMA) is the official Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) tool in most Italian regions for assessing medical, social, and functional needs of community-dwelling older people and developing an integrated care plan to meet them. The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is a validated CGA-based tool for predicting mortality, other negative health outcomes and assessing multidimensional frailty. SVaMA's wide diffusion in clinical practice prompted the development of an MPI version based on its data (MPI-SVaMA).

AIMS

Assessing the usefulness in predicting mortality of a new digital version of the MPI-SVaMA (MPI-SVaMA Digit) through a simpler model.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, 12.020 community-dwelling older people (≥ 65 years) who underwent the SVaMA in Veneto, Italy were included. One-month and one-year mortality rates were retrieved from Registry Offices. The MPI-SVaMA Digit was obtained by assigning a risk category to each domain assessed in the SVaMA. Accuracy and precision were assessed using Area Under the Curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-index). The association between MPI-SVaMA Digit and mortality was evaluated through Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

The MPI-SVaMA Digit showed good accuracy and precision in predicting 1-month (AUC = 0.78; 95%CI 0.75-0.81, C-index = 0.78 95%CI 9.75-0.81) and 1-year mortality (AUC = 0.77; 95%CI 0.76-0.78, C-index = 0.72 95%CI 0.71-0.74). People at moderate and severe risk of multidimensional frailty showed, respectively a 4-fold and 12-fold increased mortality risk than the group at mild risk.

CONCLUSION

The new MPI-SVaMA Digit is an accurate prognostic tool for short- and long-term mortality useful to address clinical and organizational demands in community-dwelling older people.