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基于列线图的IV期鼻咽癌生存预测:一项回顾性单中心研究

Nomogram-Based Prediction of Survival in Stage IV Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Retrospective Single-Center Study.

作者信息

Yeh Peng, Chang Chih-Ming, Liao Li-Jen, Wu Chia-Yun, Hsieh Chen-Hsi, Shueng Pei-Wei, Cheng Po-Wen, Lo Wu-Chia

机构信息

Department of Otolaryngology, Far Eastern Memorial Hospital, New Taipei City 220216, Taiwan.

Department of Biomedical Engineering, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei City 10044, Taiwan.

出版信息

Diagnostics (Basel). 2025 May 23;15(11):1309. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics15111309.

Abstract

: To assess the pretreatment and posttreatment clinical factors associated with the rate of survival at 1, 3, and 5 years in stage IV nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. : Clinicopathological characteristics of 61 Stage IV NPC patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2022 in a single tertiary medical center were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and disease-free survival (DFS). A nomogram was developed to forecast DSS. : The OS at 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year were 93%, 70%, and 57%, while the DSS at 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year were 93%, 73%, and 58%, whereas the DFS at 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year were 51%, 44%, and 41%, respectively. In multivariate analyses, posttreatment body mass index (BMI) < 21.6 kg/m (hazard ratio [HR] 2.717, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.248-5.917, = 0.012) was an independent indicator for worsened OS. Posttreatment BMI < 21.6 kg/m (HR 3.003, 95% CI 1.340-6.757, = 0.008) and pretreatment systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) ≥ 125 (HR 2.841, 95% CI 1.256-6.429, = 0.012) were independent indicators for worsened DSS. Posttreatment BMI < 21.6 kg/m (HR 3.650, 95% CI 1.757-7.576, = 0.001), change in BMI < -1.93 kg/m (HR 3.731, 95% CI 1.642-8.475, = 0.002), and pretreatment SIRI ≥ 125 (HR 3.541, 95% CI 1.717-7.304, = 0.001) were independent indicators for worsened DFS. A nomogram was created to predict DSS using posttreatment BMI and pretreatment SIRI. : Associations with survival were observed between posttreatment BMI and OS, DSS, and DFS; pretreatment SIRI and DSS/DFS; and changes in BMI and DFS among patients with stage IV NPC. The developed nomogram aids in survival prediction.

摘要

评估IV期鼻咽癌(NPC)患者1年、3年和5年生存率相关的治疗前和治疗后临床因素。回顾性分析了2008年至2022年在一家三级医疗中心确诊的61例IV期NPC患者的临床病理特征。进行单因素和多因素分析以评估与总生存(OS)、疾病特异性生存(DSS)和无病生存(DFS)相关的预后因素。绘制了列线图以预测DSS。1年、3年和5年的OS分别为93%、70%和57%,1年、3年和5年的DSS分别为93%、73%和58%,而1年、3年和5年的DFS分别为51%、44%和41%。在多因素分析中,治疗后体重指数(BMI)<21.6 kg/m²(风险比[HR] 2.717,95%置信区间[CI] 1.248 - 5.917,P = 0.012)是OS恶化的独立指标。治疗后BMI<21.6 kg/m²(HR 3.003,95% CI 1.340 - 6.757,P = 0.008)和治疗前全身炎症反应指数(SIRI)≥125(HR 2.841,95% CI 1.256 - 6.429,P = 0.012)是DSS恶化的独立指标。治疗后BMI<21.6 kg/m²(HR 3.650,95% CI 1.757 - 7.576,P = 0.001)、BMI变化<-1.93 kg/m²(HR 3.731,95% CI 1.642 - 8.475,P = 0.002)和治疗前SIRI≥125(HR 3.541,95% CI 1.717 - 7.304,P = 0.001)是DFS恶化的独立指标。使用治疗后BMI和治疗前SIRI创建了列线图以预测DSS。在IV期NPC患者中,观察到治疗后BMI与OS、DSS和DFS之间;治疗前SIRI与DSS/DFS之间;以及BMI变化与DFS之间与生存的关联。所绘制的列线图有助于生存预测。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/b90c/12154514/2627362e5171/diagnostics-15-01309-g001.jpg

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