Contrasting responses of flowering phenology in C and C plants shape grassland community structure under global change.

Climate change is known to affect plant phenology. Yet, the sensitivity of flowering phenology in dryland regions to climate change, and the potential implications for community composition, remain largely unexplored. Here, we used an 18-year field experiment to investigate the effects of climate warming and nitrogen addition on flowering phenology of four C plant species and two C plant species, and the cascading effects on the relative abundance of C and C plants in a desert steppe. Across the past 10 years of the experiment (2013-2022), we found that warming had a greater effect on phenological shifts in C than in C plants. Warming significantly advanced the flowering time of C plants by 4.3 ± 0.1 days and of C plants by 2.8 ± 0.1 days, respectively. Warming also reduced the duration of flowering by 1.8 ± 0.1 days for C plants but had no effect on C plants, and decreased the dominance of C plants compared to C plants. Nitrogen addition extended the duration of flowering of C plants by 3.4 ± 0.2 days and increased their relative dominance, while decreasing the dominance of C plants. Structural equation models revealed that these phenological responses were largely driven by soil temperature and soil water availability. Our results demonstrate that the different phenological responses of C and C plants contribute to shifts in dominance between these plant types in temperate dryland ecosystems under global changes.