Hayes Felicity, Sharps Katrina, van Caspel Willem E, Klimont Zbigniew, Heyes Chris, Fagerli Hilde
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Deiniol Road, Gwynedd, Bangor, UK.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Deiniol Road, Gwynedd, Bangor, UK.
Environ Pollut. 2025 Oct 1;382:126654. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126654. Epub 2025 Jun 16.
This study has shown that there is a large potential to avoid wheat production losses through global efforts to reduce emissions of non-methane ozone precursors. In addition, global efforts to reduce methane concentrations could avoid additional wheat production losses due to the role of methane as an ozone precursor. Ex-post analysis on scenarios used within the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - West (EMEP-MSC-West) model revealed that within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region (excluding North America and Israel) in 2050 using the LOW future emission scenario, the reduction in ozone as a consequence of reducing global non-methane precursor emissions showed avoided wheat production losses of 6.4 million tonnes compared to that with current legislation. For the EU27 countries this was 3.1 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €675 million. Reducing both non-methane and methane ozone precursors globally have avoided wheat production losses in the UNECE region in 2050 totalling 9.0 million tonnes, compared to that calculated from emissions in current legislation. Within EU27 this was 4.4 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €976 million. Within the UNECE region (excluding North America and Israel) the relative benefits of additional reductions in non-methane emissions within the region, non-methane emissions in the rest of the world, and global efforts to reduce methane emissions, were approximately equal. This demonstrates the benefits from reducing regional non-methane emissions, global non-methane emissions and global methane as contributing factors to avoiding crop yield losses due to their role in ozone formation.
这项研究表明,通过全球努力减少非甲烷臭氧前体的排放,有很大潜力避免小麦产量损失。此外,由于甲烷作为臭氧前体的作用,全球努力降低甲烷浓度可避免额外的小麦产量损失。对欧洲监测与评估计划气象合成中心 - 西部(EMEP - MSC - West)模型中使用的情景进行事后分析表明,在2050年,在联合国欧洲经济委员会(UNECE)区域(不包括北美和以色列)采用低未来排放情景时,由于全球非甲烷前体排放减少导致的臭氧减少,与现行法规相比,可避免640万吨小麦产量损失。对于欧盟27国而言,这是310万吨小麦,价值约6.75亿欧元。与根据现行法规排放计算的结果相比,全球减少非甲烷和甲烷臭氧前体排放,在2050年使UNECE区域避免了总计900万吨小麦产量损失。在欧盟27国内,这是440万吨小麦,价值约9.76亿欧元。在UNECE区域(不包括北美和以色列)内,该区域进一步减少非甲烷排放、世界其他地区的非甲烷排放以及全球努力减少甲烷排放的相对效益大致相等。这表明减少区域非甲烷排放、全球非甲烷排放和全球甲烷排放,作为避免作物产量损失的促成因素,具有显著效益,因为它们在臭氧形成过程中发挥了作用。