Pittman Ratterree Dana C, Dass Sapna Chitlapilly, Ndeffo-Mbah Martial L
Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States.
Department of Animal Science, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States.
Front Vet Sci. 2025 May 30;12:1590156. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2025.1590156. eCollection 2025.
Swine exhibitions at agricultural fairs serve as unique environments where humans and pigs interact, and swine influenza A can spill over. As agricultural fairs present a substantial risk for zoonotic influenza outbreaks and potential pandemics, it is paramount to identify efficient preventive measures for mitigating the risk of variant influenza A transmission from pigs to humans at swine exhibitions.
We developed a mathematical model of swine influenza A variant transmission at agricultural fairs. We fitted the model to empirical data of a 2011 zoonotic outbreak at a Pennsylvania agricultural fair. We used the fitted model to simulate and evaluate the impact of various control strategies, including preventive measures such as shortening the exhibition duration, enhanced biosecurity, pre-fair testing of pigs, and quarantine of sick animals.
The impact of control strategies was shown to vary substantially between preventive measures. Shortening the length of the exhibition to 3 days generated the lowest prevalence of disease in pigs and humans. Increased biosecurity measures reduced the risk and size of swine influenza outbreaks among pigs and humans during the exhibition period. Due to the majority of pigs experiencing asymptomatic infections, case identification and quarantining of sick pigs did not significantly reduce the infection prevalence.
Shortening the duration of swine exhibitions combined with enhanced biosecurity measures was shown to be the most effective method for preventing zoonotic transmission of swine influenza during agricultural fairs in the US. The study provides additional evidence on the potential benefits of shortened swine exhibitions.
农业展览会上的猪展是人类与猪互动的独特环境，甲型猪流感可能会外溢。由于农业展览会为人畜共患流感爆发和潜在大流行带来重大风险，因此确定有效的预防措施以降低猪展上甲型变异流感从猪传播给人类的风险至关重要。
我们建立了一个农业展览会上甲型猪流感变异体传播的数学模型。我们将该模型与2011年宾夕法尼亚州一个农业展览会上人畜共患疫情的实证数据进行拟合。我们使用拟合后的模型来模拟和评估各种控制策略的影响，包括缩短展览持续时间、加强生物安全措施、猪展前检测以及病畜隔离等预防措施。
控制策略的影响在不同预防措施之间差异很大。将展览长度缩短至3天，猪和人类中的疾病患病率最低。加强生物安全措施降低了展览期间猪和人类中甲型猪流感爆发的风险和规模。由于大多数猪感染后无症状，识别病猪并进行隔离并没有显著降低感染患病率。
缩短猪展持续时间并结合加强生物安全措施被证明是在美国农业展览会上预防甲型猪流感人畜共患传播的最有效方法。该研究为缩短猪展的潜在益处提供了更多证据。
