Zarghamipour Mona, Malakooti Hossein
Department of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran.
Department of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran.
Sci Total Environ. 2025 Aug 25;992:179955. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179955. Epub 2025 Jun 26.
Rapid urbanization and changes in land-use patterns have intensified global environmental challenges in megacities. As cities confront the dual pressures of urbanization and climate change, understanding their individual and combined impacts on the thermal environment and urban resilience remains a critical research priority. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the single-layer Urban Canopy Model (UCM) to investigate the localized effects of urbanization and climate change on Tehran during July, focusing on the present (2019-2023) and mid-term future (2050-2054) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results reveal that urbanization and climate change interact to exacerbate warming and reduce wind speeds in all selected scenarios. Tehran's urban area warms by 3.43 ± 0.48 °C until 2050-2054 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with 0.46 ± 0.31 °C attributed to urbanization, and 2.93 ± 0.43 °C to climate change. In urban areas, wind speed decreases by -1.63 ± 0.19 m/s, primarily due to climate change (84.66 %), reducing urban ventilation. Future urbanization, however, increases 10-m wind speed by 0.09 ± 0.02 m/s daily and 0.20 ± 0.02 m/s during daytime. Thermal comfort variations are assessed using HI, THI, and ETI indices, which show increases of 4.46 ± 0.28 °C, 2.57 ± 0.25 °C, and 2.84 ± 0.27 °C, driven mainly by global warming (73-87 %). This study also evaluates the effectiveness of cool roofs in mitigating adverse microclimatic impacts of future urbanization and climate change. The results reveal that although cool roof helps mitigate the effects of urbanization and climate change on temperature rise and thermal comfort by up to 4.37 % and 15 %, respectively, it also exacerbates the reduction in wind speed by 8.58 %, hindering pollutant dispersion. This study shows the need to integrate urbanization and climate change impacts into sustainable urban planning, offering valuable insights for targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies.
快速的城市化和土地利用模式的变化加剧了特大城市面临的全球环境挑战。随着城市面临城市化和气候变化的双重压力，了解它们对热环境和城市韧性的单独及综合影响仍然是一项关键的研究重点。本研究采用天气研究与预报（WRF）模型与单层城市冠层模型（UCM）相结合的方法，研究城市化和气候变化在7月对德黑兰的局部影响，重点关注SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下的当前（2019-2023年）和中期未来（2050-2054年）。结果表明，在所有选定情景中，城市化和气候变化相互作用，加剧了变暖并降低了风速。在SSP5-8.5情景下，到2050-2054年，德黑兰市区升温3.43±0.48°C，其中0.46±0.31°C归因于城市化，2.93±0.43°C归因于气候变化。在城市地区，风速下降了-1.63±0.19米/秒，主要是由于气候变化（84.66%），降低了城市通风能力。然而，未来的城市化使10米高度处的风速每天增加0.09±0.02米/秒，白天增加0.20±0.02米/秒。使用热指数（HI）、温湿指数（THI）和有效温度指数（ETI）评估热舒适度变化，结果显示分别增加了4.46±0.28°C、2.57±0.25°C和2.84±0.27°C，主要是由全球变暖驱动的（73%-87%）。本研究还评估了凉爽屋顶在减轻未来城市化和气候变化不利微气候影响方面的有效性。结果表明，尽管凉爽屋顶有助于分别将城市化和气候变化对气温上升和热舒适度的影响减轻高达4.37%和15%，但它也会使风速降低加剧8.58%，阻碍污染物扩散。这项研究表明，有必要将城市化和气候变化的影响纳入可持续城市规划，为有针对性的适应和缓解策略提供有价值的见解。
