Slote Kevin, Daley Kevin, Succar Rayan, Barak Ventura Roni, Porfiri Maurizio, Belykh Igor
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgia State University, P.O. Box 4110, Atlanta, Georgia 30302-410, USA.
Center for Urban Science and Progress, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USA.
PNAS Nexus. 2025 Jun 12;4(6):pgaf195. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf195. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Firearm injuries are a leading cause of death in the United States, surpassing fatalities from motor vehicle crashes. Despite this significant public health risk, Americans continue to purchase firearms in large quantities. Commonly cited drivers of firearm acquisition include fear of violent crime, fear of mass shootings, and panic-buying. Additionally, advocacy groups' activity on social media may capitalize on emotions like fear and influence firearm acquisition. The simultaneous effects of these variables have not been explored in a causal framework. In this study, we aim to elucidate the causal roles of media coverage of firearm laws and regulations, media coverage of mass shootings, media coverage of violent crimes, and the Twitter activity of anti- and proregulation advocacy groups in short-term firearm acquisition in the United States. We collect daily time series for these variables from 2012 to 2020 and employ the PCMCI+ framework to investigate the causal structures among them simultaneously. Our results indicate that the Twitter activity of antiregulation advocacy groups directly drives firearm acquisitions. We also find that media coverage of firearm laws and regulations and media coverage of violent crimes influence firearm acquisition. Although media coverage of mass shootings and online activity of proregulation organizations are potential drivers of firearm acquisition, in the short term, only the lobbying efforts of antiregulation organizations on social media and specific media coverage appear to influence individuals' decisions to purchase firearms.
在美国,枪支伤害是主要的死亡原因之一,超过了机动车事故导致的死亡人数。尽管存在这种重大的公共卫生风险,但美国人仍继续大量购买枪支。常见的购买枪支的驱动因素包括对暴力犯罪的恐惧、对大规模枪击事件的恐惧以及恐慌性购买。此外,倡导团体在社交媒体上的活动可能会利用恐惧等情绪并影响枪支购买行为。这些变量的综合影响尚未在因果框架中进行探讨。在本研究中,我们旨在阐明媒体对枪支法律法规的报道、媒体对大规模枪击事件的报道、媒体对暴力犯罪的报道以及支持和反对枪支管制倡导团体在推特上的活动在美国短期枪支购买行为中的因果作用。我们收集了2012年至2020年这些变量的每日时间序列,并采用PCMCI+框架同时研究它们之间的因果结构。我们的结果表明,反对枪支管制倡导团体在推特上的活动直接推动了枪支购买。我们还发现,媒体对枪支法律法规的报道以及媒体对暴力犯罪的报道会影响枪支购买行为。虽然媒体对大规模枪击事件的报道以及支持枪支管制组织的在线活动是枪支购买的潜在驱动因素,但在短期内,似乎只有反对枪支管制组织在社交媒体上的游说努力和特定的媒体报道会影响个人购买枪支的决定。
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