1990年至2021年及2046年预测期间，全球因空腹血糖升高导致的女性乳腺癌负担：全球疾病负担研究2021分析。
Global Burden of Female Breast Cancer Attributable to High Fasting Plasma Glucose From 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2046: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
作者信息
Jiang Donglin, Ma Siyao, Wu Yangxue, Zhu Jicun, Yang Qian, Liu Ling, Li Tiandong, Lu Yin, Liu Yuqi, Wang Peng, Wang Keyan, Shi Jianxiang, Ye Hua
机构信息
College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
Henan Key Laboratory of Tumor Epidemiology, Zhengzhou, China.
出版信息
Diabetes Metab Res Rev. 2025 Jul;41(5):e70063. doi: 10.1002/dmrr.70063.
BACKGROUND
High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) plays an important role in the progression of breast cancer. This study aims to assess the global time trends of female breast cancer attributable to HFPG from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2046.
METHODS
This study obtained the number and age-standardised rate of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of female breast cancer burden attributable to HFPG by age, region, country, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2021. Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) was analysed to assess time trends in female breast cancer burden attributable to HFPG. The age-period-cohort model was used to project the global burden by 2046.
RESULTS
In 2021, 4.62% of female breast cancer deaths (30,000) and 4.04% of DALYs (820,000) globally were attributed to HFPG. Compared with 1990, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised DALY rate (ASDR) increased, with AAPCs of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.89) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.98), respectively. The burden of breast cancer attributable to HFPG was higher in the elderly and low SDI regions. Additionally, the burden of female breast cancer attributable to HFPG is projected to continue to increase through 2046.
CONCLUSIONS
The burden of female breast cancer attributable to HFPG has increased over the past three decades and will continue to increase over the next 25 years. Therefore, it is important to control blood sugar to reduce the burden of breast cancer.
背景
空腹血糖升高（HFPG）在乳腺癌进展中起重要作用。本研究旨在评估1990年至2021年全球归因于HFPG的女性乳腺癌时间趋势，并预测至2046年的情况。
方法
本研究获取了1990年至2021年按年龄、地区、国家和社会人口指数（SDI）划分的归因于HFPG的女性乳腺癌负担的死亡人数、年龄标准化死亡率以及伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。分析年均百分比变化（AAPC）以评估归因于HFPG的女性乳腺癌负担的时间趋势。使用年龄-时期-队列模型预测到2046年的全球负担。
结果
2021年，全球4.62%的女性乳腺癌死亡病例（30000例）和4.04%的DALYs（820000个）归因于HFPG。与1990年相比，年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化DALY率（ASDR）有所上升，AAPC分别为0.76（95%CI：0.71，0.89）和0.86（95%CI：0.84，0.98）。归因于HFPG的乳腺癌负担在老年人和低SDI地区更高。此外，预计到2046年，归因于HFPG的女性乳腺癌负担将继续增加。
结论
在过去三十年中，归因于HFPG的女性乳腺癌负担有所增加，并将在未来25年继续上升。因此，控制血糖对于减轻乳腺癌负担很重要。
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