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川西藏族村落的恢复力及关键驱动因素评估

Assessment of resilience and key drivers of Tibetan villages in Western Sichuan.

作者信息

Fan Ding, Maliki Nor Zarifah Binti, Yu Siwei, Men Tao

机构信息

School of Fine Arts and Design, Leshan Normal University, No. 778, Binhe Road, Shizhong District, Leshan City, 614000, Sichuan Province, China.

School of Housing, Building, and Planning, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800, Penang, Malaysia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):20594. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07788-8.

Abstract

This study employs an integrated analytical framework combining the Social-Ecological System (SES) and Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) models, supplemented by quantitative methodologies including the Entropy Weight Method (EWM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Lasso regression, and shallow neural networks, to conduct a systematic resilience assessment of six representative Tibetan villages in western Sichuan based on longitudinal data from 2015 to 2022. The analysis reveals significant differences in resilience levels among the villages, primarily influenced by multiple factors. Disposable income and employment are key positive drivers that enhance adaptive capacity and resilience. Conversely, excessive reliance on policy interventions may constrain local self-organization and adaptive governance. The study highlights the complexity of balancing ecological sustainability with economic growth, underscoring the need for flexible and inclusive policy frameworks. Furthermore, the findings indicate that integrating top-down policies with community-based governance can effectively mitigate external pressures. Key recommendations involve promoting economic diversification via agroecology and cultural tourism, enhancing local governance capacity, and adopting adaptive environmental policies. These strategies are crucial for reducing dependence on traditional agriculture and alleviating resource pressures. The insights gained from this study deepen the understanding of restoration mechanisms in ecologically fragile areas and contribute to the development of effective strategies for sustainable management.

摘要

本研究采用了一种综合分析框架,将社会生态系统(SES)和驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型相结合,并辅以包括熵权法(EWM)、广义相加模型(GAM)、套索回归和浅层神经网络在内的定量方法,基于2015年至2022年的纵向数据,对四川西部六个具有代表性的藏族村庄进行系统的恢复力评估。分析表明,各村庄的恢复力水平存在显著差异,主要受多种因素影响。可支配收入和就业是增强适应能力和恢复力的关键积极驱动因素。相反,过度依赖政策干预可能会限制地方自组织和适应性治理。该研究突出了平衡生态可持续性与经济增长的复杂性,强调了需要灵活且包容的政策框架。此外,研究结果表明,将自上而下的政策与基于社区的治理相结合可以有效减轻外部压力。关键建议包括通过农业生态和文化旅游促进经济多元化、提高地方治理能力以及采用适应性环境政策。这些策略对于减少对传统农业的依赖和缓解资源压力至关重要。本研究获得的见解加深了对生态脆弱地区恢复机制的理解,并有助于制定有效的可持续管理策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/324f/12214665/867519782757/41598_2025_7788_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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