Impact of imported COVID-19 cases on South Korea's response: variant transitions and regional patterns (2020-2023).

BACKGROUND

The global spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19, accelerated by globalization and frequent international interactions, poses a serious threat to public health. Robust epidemiological data on imported cases is essential for managing cross-border disease transmission, enabling targeted public health responses through international cooperation and enhanced surveillance. This study investigates the impact of imported COVID-19 cases on South Korea's pandemic response from January 2020 to May 2023.

METHODS

We analyzed 78,495 imported COVID-19 cases reported by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) from January 2020 to May 2023. The dataset included demographic information, countries of origin, entry points, and information on dominant viral variants during the specified period. Temporal and spatial analyses examined how variant transitions, particularly from Delta to Omicron, and quarantine policy changes influenced imported case patterns. We calculated the "confirmation lag," the time between entry and confirmation, and applied Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to evaluate how detection speed was affected by policy shifts and variant changes. In addition, least squares regression was used to explore the relationship between regional population size and the number of imported cases.

RESULTS

The findings reveal a significant increase in imported cases during the transition from the Delta to Omicron variants, highlighting the increased transmissibility of Omicron and its impact on imported case numbers. Consequently, testing strategies were improved for faster detection and quarantine adaptability, which was confirmed by the observed reduction in confirmation lag. Regions with major entry points, such as Incheon, had higher imported case ratios. Population size was the strongest predictor, followed by first importation timing. This trend underscores the importance of tailored measures, such as region-based surveillance and country-targeted entry policies, to effectively manage virus importation.

CONCLUSION

By systematically analyzing a large-scale dataset of imported COVID-19 cases, we demonstrate that targeted border measures-accounting for travelers' countries of origin and regional vulnerabilities-are essential for effective containment. Our findings underscore the value of variant-specific strategies, reinforced by real-time surveillance of imported cases, as a critical component of South Korea's public health infrastructure. This approach not only enhances current response capacity but also strengthens preparedness for future cross-border infectious disease threats.