Kramer Lilith, Troost Tineke A, Zwolsman Gertjan, van der Schrier Gerard, Schep Sebastiaan, Mooij Wolf M, Teurlincx Sven
Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), PO Box 50, 6700 AB, Wageningen, the Netherlands; Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands; Department of Freshwater Ecology and Water Quality, Deltares, Postbus 177, 2600 MH, Delft, the Netherlands.
Department of Freshwater Ecology and Water Quality, Deltares, Postbus 177, 2600 MH, Delft, the Netherlands.
J Environ Manage. 2025 Sep;391:126124. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.126124. Epub 2025 Jul 2.
Lakes fulfill essential functions for people and nature, but at the same time are being heavily impacted by human pressures and the climate in this era. In this study we modeled the impact of three surface water abstraction rates in the epilimnion for drinking water purposes in combination with climate change on the ecological quality and the recreational potential of a quarry lake in The Netherlands. Our results show that the highest surface water abstraction rate (1.36 m/s) - related to the estimated abstraction rate for 2040 - would substantially change the ecological quality of the lake. Specifically, this surface water abstraction rate caused a threefold extension of the period of hypoxia in the hypolimnion and a reduction of the phytoplankton summer bloom as compared to the baseline. Simultaneously, the reduction of cyanobacteria in the lake due to the surface water abstraction would improve the lake's suitability for recreation, as the risk of harmful blooms becomes negligible. The two lower surface water abstraction rates showed results in between the no-abstraction and the high abstraction rate results. When considering only the changes in the climate between 2010 and 2050, we found that the lake's ecological quality would decrease, mainly due to prolonged hypoxic conditions. However, the recreational potential remained relatively unchanged due to climate change. Overall, our findings indicate that surface water abstraction, in particular at the highest rate, would have a more profound impact on the lake than the projected climate change. Our study highlights the importance of including local water management strategies, such as surface water abstractions, in future water quality simulations.
湖泊对人类和自然起着至关重要的作用，但与此同时，在这个时代正受到人类压力和气候的严重影响。在本研究中，我们模拟了为饮用水目的从湖上层抽取三种地表水速率，并结合气候变化对荷兰一个采石湖的生态质量和休闲潜力的影响。我们的结果表明，最高地表水抽取速率（1.36米/秒）——与2040年的估计抽取速率相关——将极大地改变湖泊的生态质量。具体而言，与基线相比，这种地表水抽取速率导致湖下层缺氧期延长了三倍，浮游植物夏季水华减少。同时，由于地表水抽取导致湖泊中蓝藻减少，将提高湖泊的休闲适宜性，因为有害水华的风险变得可以忽略不计。另外两种较低的地表水抽取速率的结果介于不抽取和高抽取速率的结果之间。当仅考虑2010年至2050年期间的气候变化时，我们发现湖泊的生态质量会下降，主要是由于缺氧状况持续时间延长。然而，由于气候变化，其休闲潜力相对保持不变。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，地表水抽取，尤其是最高速率的抽取，对湖泊的影响将比预计的气候变化更为深远。我们的研究强调了在未来水质模拟中纳入当地水资源管理策略（如地表水抽取）的重要性。
