Li Meng, Xu Shaojie, Yang Qian, Zheng Zhong, Zhang Xiaoyue, Liu Haiyan, Cheng Yifan, Zou Yuanlin, Ye Hua, Wang Peng
College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China.
Henan Key Laboratory of Tumor Epidemiology and Henan International Joint Laboratory of Tumor Biomarkers and Molecular Imaging, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China.
Int J Gynaecol Obstet. 2025 Jul 4. doi: 10.1002/ijgo.70351.
This study aimed to estimate the incidence rates, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancers among females in East Asia (China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia, Japan, and Republic of Korea) between 1990 and 2021, and to predict the disease burden for the next decade.
The data were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 project. The joinpoint regression model was applied to reflect temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model investigated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on mortality risk. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the disease burden for the next decade.
In 2021, the incidence rates, deaths, and DALYs due to cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancers were rising in East Asia, but age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) showed different heterogeneity. For cervical cancer, joinpoint regression results showed that the ASIR of cervical cancer decreased to 8.88% in 2021 in the Republic of Korea, with an annual percent change of -1.75% (95% CI -2.04 to -1.47, P < 0.05). For ovarian cancer, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR) in Mongolia and Japan have been much greater than in other East Asian nations since 1990. For uterine cancer, the ASMR and ASDR in the Republic of Korea were lower than in other East Asian countries. In the next decade, the absolute numbers of deaths due to cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancers are expected to rise further in East Asia.
In East Asia, cervical, ovarian, and uterine cancers are a consistently increasing burden over time. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted public health interventions to mitigate the impact of these cancers.
本研究旨在估计1990年至2021年间东亚地区（中国、朝鲜民主主义人民共和国、蒙古、日本和韩国）女性宫颈癌、卵巢癌和子宫癌的发病率、死亡率及伤残调整生命年（DALYs），并预测未来十年的疾病负担。
数据来源于全球疾病负担（GBD）2021项目。采用Joinpoint回归模型反映时间趋势。年龄-时期-队列模型研究年龄、时期和出生队列对死亡风险的影响。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测未来十年的疾病负担。
2021年，东亚地区宫颈癌、卵巢癌和子宫癌的发病率、死亡率及DALYs呈上升趋势，但年龄标准化发病率（ASIRs）呈现不同的异质性。对于宫颈癌，Joinpoint回归结果显示，2021年韩国宫颈癌的ASIR降至8.88%，年变化率为-1.75%（95%CI -2.04至-1.47，P<0.05）。对于卵巢癌，自1990年以来，蒙古和日本的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）远高于其他东亚国家。对于子宫癌，韩国的ASMR和ASDR低于其他东亚国家。未来十年，预计东亚地区宫颈癌、卵巢癌和子宫癌的死亡绝对数将进一步上升。
在东亚地区，宫颈癌、卵巢癌和子宫癌的负担随时间持续增加。这些发现凸显了采取有针对性公共卫生干预措施以减轻这些癌症影响的迫切需求。
