Gerlich Hannah Sørine, Loboda Sarah, Simpson Gavin L, Savage Jade, Schmidt Niels Martin, Holmstrup Martin, Høye Toke Thomas
Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, C.F. Møllers Allé 4-8, Aarhus C DK-8000, Denmark.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute, 850 Rte de la Mer, Mont-Joli, Quebec G5H 3Z4, Canada.
Proc Biol Sci. 2025 Jul;292(2050):20250970. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2025.0970. Epub 2025 Jul 9.
Insects are experiencing notable phenological shifts owing to climate change, with substantial interspecific variability. However, our understanding is limited by a shortage of long-term studies, beyond Lepidoptera. This study presents a hierarchical modelling framework to analyse the phenological distribution of 11 muscid fly species across three vegetation types over 18 years (1996-2014) in Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland. We examined species-specific changes in phenology and assessed ecological traits for explaining interspecific variation. Additionally, we investigated the associations between phenological shifts and timing of snowmelt and temperature. We found consistent trends of earlier flight activity and interspecific variation in responses, with smaller species shifting their end-of-the-season activity at faster rates than larger species. Flight activity was strongly associated with the timing of snowmelt, while warming was linked to an earlier end-of-the-season activity. Late-active species exhibited more pronounced shifts in response to climate variations than early-active species. This study highlights that the species-specific climate sensitivity of high-Arctic muscid flies potentially has demographic effects if temporal overlap among interacting species changes. We advocate for prioritizing species-specific insect population studies, ideally analysed within the context of interacting species, to understand better and address disparities in responses to climate change.
由于气候变化，昆虫正在经历显著的物候变化，且种间差异很大。然而，除鳞翅目外，长期研究的匮乏限制了我们的了解。本研究提出了一个层次建模框架，用于分析1996年至2014年这18年间，11种蝇科昆虫在格陵兰东北部扎克伯格三种植被类型中的物候分布。我们研究了物候的物种特异性变化，并评估了解释种间差异的生态特征。此外，我们还研究了物候变化与融雪时间和温度之间的关联。我们发现了飞行活动提前的一致趋势以及种间反应差异，体型较小的物种比体型较大的物种以更快的速度改变其季末活动时间。飞行活动与融雪时间密切相关，而变暖则与季末活动提前有关。晚活动物种对气候变化的反应比早活动物种更为明显。这项研究强调，如果相互作用物种之间的时间重叠发生变化，高北极地区蝇科昆虫的物种特异性气候敏感性可能会产生种群统计学效应。我们主张优先开展物种特异性昆虫种群研究，最好在相互作用物种的背景下进行分析，以便更好地理解和应对气候变化反应中的差异。
