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用于预测高级别肺神经内分泌癌同步骨转移风险的机器学习

Machine learning for synchronous bone metastasis risk prediction in high grade lung neuroendocrine carcinoma.

作者信息

Lan Bo, He Zongyun, Chen Zhe, Tao Haibing, Liu Tao, Yang Jin

机构信息

Department of Hand and Foot Surgery, Yiwu Central Hospital, Yiwu, 322000, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 9;15(1):24637. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-09762-w.

Abstract

Bone metastasis (BM) is common in high-grade lung neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). This study aimed to use multiple machine learning algorithms to exploring the significant factors associated with synchronous BM in these patients. Patients diagnosed with high-grade lung NETs were extracted from SEER 17 registries. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was calculated. All patients were randomly divided into the training cohort and validation cohort (8:2). Eight machine learning algorithms were used to construct predictive model for synchronous BM in the training cohort, and the optimal model was selected for further validation. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) were used to interpret the importance of each variable in the optimal model. In addition, Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis was performed to evaluate survival in patients with synchronous BM. From 2010 to 2021, the ASIR of synchronous BM in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) showed decreasing incidence (from 1.52 to 1.16 per 100,000 person-years, APC - 2.3, 95% CI - 3.3 to - 1.3, P < 0.001). No significant change was found for large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (LCNEC). Approximately 23% of patients had synchronous BM at diagnosis. The stochastic gradient boosting (GBM) model, developed using ten-fold cross-validation, showed optimal predictive value both in the training and validation cohorts. The SHAP analysis indicated that liver metastasis had the most significant impact on synchronous BM. The median cancer-specific survival of patents with bone metastasis was 8 months. No survival difference was found between LCNEC and SCLC. The incidence of SCLC with synchronous BM showed a slight but statistically significant decrease over the last decade. These patients experienced poor survival. The selected GBM model could help identify patients at high risk of BM among those with high-grade lung NETs.

摘要

骨转移(BM)在高级别肺神经内分泌肿瘤(NETs)中很常见。本研究旨在使用多种机器学习算法来探索这些患者中与同步骨转移相关的重要因素。从SEER 17登记处提取诊断为高级别肺NETs的患者。计算年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)。所有患者被随机分为训练队列和验证队列(8:2)。使用八种机器学习算法在训练队列中构建同步骨转移的预测模型,并选择最优模型进行进一步验证。使用Shapley加性解释(SHAP)来解释最优模型中每个变量的重要性。此外,进行Kaplan-Meier(KM)生存分析以评估同步骨转移患者的生存率。2010年至2021年,小细胞肺癌(SCLC)中同步骨转移的ASIR显示发病率下降(从每10万人年1.52降至1.16,APC -2.3,95%CI -3.3至-1.3,P<0.001)。大细胞神经内分泌癌(LCNEC)未发现显著变化。约23%的患者在诊断时出现同步骨转移。使用十折交叉验证开发的随机梯度提升(GBM)模型在训练队列和验证队列中均显示出最佳预测价值。SHAP分析表明肝转移对同步骨转移的影响最为显著。骨转移患者的癌症特异性生存中位数为8个月。LCNEC和SCLC之间未发现生存差异。在过去十年中,同步骨转移的SCLC发病率略有下降,但具有统计学意义。这些患者的生存率较差。所选的GBM模型有助于在高级别肺NETs患者中识别骨转移高危患者。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d209/12241499/cfba779d9e07/41598_2025_9762_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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