Luo Jiahan, Chen Lei, Cai Guotian
School of Information Engineering, Shenyang University of Chemical Technology, Shenyang 110142, China; Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High-Quality Recycling of End-of-Life New Energy Devices, Guangzhou 510640, China.
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China; Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High-Quality Recycling of End-of-Life New Energy Devices, Guangzhou 510640, China.
Waste Manag. 2025 Aug;205:115008. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2025.115008. Epub 2025 Jul 10.
The rapid adoption of residential electric vehicles (EVs) in China presents significant challenges for the sustainable management of end-of-life (EOL) traction batteries. This study developed a scenario-based, province-level model to forecast the temporal and spatial distribution of retired EV batteries, evaluated their second-life energy storage potential, and quantified the economic benefits of recycling under varying electrification rates and regional policy supports. The analysis explicitly incorporated evolving battery chemistries by modeling the shifting shares of high-nickel, lithium iron phosphate (LFP), and emerging solid-state batteries in the EV fleet, and examined their implications for future material composition and recycling value chains. Results indicated that annual battery retirements would peak at 4.25 million tons by 2038, with substantial disparities across provinces. Under rapid electrification and strong policy incentives, regions such as Guangdong and Jiangsu could achieve cumulative economic benefits from battery reuse and recycling exceeding $34 trillion by 2050, representing a 24% increase compared to scenarios with slower EV adoption. Conversely, scenarios featuring slower EV growth but targeted local policies yielded up to 161% higher adaptation rates for second-life batteries in energy storage than uniform national strategies. The increasing dominance of LFP and solid-state chemistries was projected to lower the average material recovery value but enhanced overall safety and sustainability. These findings provided robust quantitative evidence to guide differentiated policy design and infrastructure investment, supporting the development of a circular battery economy critical for China's long-term decarbonization and energy security.
中国家用电动汽车（EV）的迅速普及给报废牵引电池的可持续管理带来了重大挑战。本研究开发了一种基于情景的省级模型，以预测退役电动汽车电池的时空分布，评估其二次生命储能潜力，并量化在不同电气化率和区域政策支持下回收利用的经济效益。该分析通过对电动汽车车队中高镍、磷酸铁锂（LFP）和新兴固态电池份额的变化进行建模，明确纳入了不断演变的电池化学组成，并研究了它们对未来材料成分和回收价值链的影响。结果表明，到2038年，每年的电池报废量将达到425万吨的峰值，各省份之间存在显著差异。在快速电气化和强有力的政策激励下，到2050年，广东和江苏等地区通过电池再利用和回收可实现累计经济效益超过34万亿美元，与电动汽车采用速度较慢的情景相比增长了24%。相反，电动汽车增长较慢但有针对性的地方政策情景下，储能中二次生命电池的适配率比统一的国家战略高出161%。预计LFP和固态化学组成的日益主导地位将降低平均材料回收价值，但提高整体安全性和可持续性。这些发现提供了有力的定量证据，以指导差异化的政策设计和基础设施投资，支持发展对中国长期脱碳和能源安全至关重要的循环电池经济。
