Exploring the spatial spillover effect of industrial structural upgrading on carbon emission efficiency: Evidence from China.

Enhancing carbon emission efficiency (CEE) is crucial for addressing climate change and advancing sustainable development. While prior studies have suggested potential impacts of industrial structural upgrading (ISU) on CEE, comprehensive studies, particularly regarding spatial spillover effects, are still lacking. We conducted a theoretical framework to examine ISU's direct and spatial spillover effects on CEE, using panel data from 280 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2021. Our findings show that the average CEE rises initially before declining, while the average ISU declines before increasing, displaying positive spatial autocorrelation. Employing a spatial Durbin model, we found that ISU boosts local CEE and triggers spatial spillover effects in adjacent regions. This is attributed to ISU fostering demonstration and imitation effects by promoting the interregional flow of factors, thus contributing to CEE in neighboring areas. Additionally, the spatial spillover effect exhibits evident regional heterogeneity, being statistically significant solely in the central region. Our study highlights the critical role of the spatial spillover effects of ISU in enhancing China's CEE, and recommends differentiated emission reduction policies with a strong emphasis on the coordination of ISU-related policy measures.