Mehdi Miqdad, Li Bingqiang, Mushtaq Zulqarnain
School of Law, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China.
Institute for Supply China Innovation, MIT Global scale network, Ningbo, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 11;15(1):25116. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-10829-x.
When China implemented the exports tax rebate policy through administrative framework in 1985, industrial energy consumption increased by more than five times. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between industrial energy demand (IED), exports tax rebate, exports, and the value of industrial output in the presence of other variables such as GDP, taking into account the effects of carbon dioxide (CO) and foreign direct investment (FDI). The present study adopted the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Granger Casuality analysis of the VECM to examine the short run and long relationship among different variables. The empirical evidence supported the long-term cointegration of these pasrameters and demonstrated a positive impact on industrial energy consumption. Foreign direct investment reduces the need for industrial power. The conservation hypothesis between export tax credits and industrial energy use was also verified by the Granger Causality analysis of the VECM. Furthermore, export tax credits have a secondary impact on energy use in manufacturing. This research might lead to more effective legal or adminsitarive regulations and policy measures to curb China's rising energy use in the industrial sector.
1985年中国通过行政框架实施出口退税政策时,工业能源消耗增长了五倍多。本研究的目的是在考虑二氧化碳(CO)和外国直接投资(FDI)等其他变量影响的情况下,研究工业能源需求(IED)、出口退税、出口和工业产出价值之间的关系。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型和VECM的格兰杰因果分析来检验不同变量之间的短期和长期关系。实证证据支持了这些参数的长期协整关系,并表明对工业能源消耗有积极影响。外国直接投资减少了工业用电需求。VECM的格兰杰因果分析也验证了出口退税与工业能源使用之间的守恒假设。此外,出口退税对制造业的能源使用有间接影响。这项研究可能会导致出台更有效的法律法规和政策措施,以遏制中国工业部门不断上升的能源使用。