Ding C M, Yin J, Zhao F, Li Y W, Zhu Y, Lyu Y B, Shi X M
China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health/National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021,China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2025 Jul 6;59(7):1063-1068. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240902-00696.
To determine the optimal cut-off value of serum cotinine for distinguishing smoking status among Chinese adults based on a large-scale national sample. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 8 987 Chinese adults aged 20-79 years from 152 administrative counties across 31 provinces during 2017-2018. Sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle, smoking status, and health status were collected via questionnaires and physical examinations. Blood samples were analyzed for serum cotinine levels using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and for blood creatinine levels using the picric acid method. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed with serum cotinine concentration as the test variable and self-reported smoking status as the state variable. The optimal cut-off value was determined based on the maximum Youden's index, and the bootstrap method was used for repeated sampling (2 000 times) to evaluate the confidence interval of the cut-off value. The net reclassification index (NRI) was used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the cut-off value of this study, the cut-off value of the American population 1 (total population: 3.3 μg/L, men: 4.1 μg/L, women: 3.0 μg/L) and the cut-off value of the American population 2 (the recommended value of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the total population: 10.0 μg/L) against the smoking status of the Chinese population. Statistical analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS 27 and Python 3.11, with a significance level of α=0.05. The age of the research subjects was (49.2±15.2) years. Among them, males accounted for 49.8% (4 477); smokers accounted for 28.8% (2 586); the detection rate of serum cotinine was 94.6% (8 501), and the () concentration of serum cotinine was 0.9 (0.3, 85.4) μg/L. The ROC curve analysis results showed that the cut-off value (95%) of serum cotinine in the total population was 8.8 (6.7-11.7) μg/L, with the specificity (95%) about 93.6%(92.7%-94.3%), the sensitivity (95%) about 91.0%(89.7%-92.3%) and the area under the curve (AUC) (95%) about 0.93 (0.92-0.94). The cut-off value (95%) of cotinine for males was 17.1 (8.8-21.8) μg/L, with the specificity (95%) about 90.7%(87.9%-92.0%), the sensitivity (95%) about 89.4%(88.4%-92.2%) and the AUC (95%) about 0.92 (0.91-0.93). The cut-off value (95%) of cotinine for females was 7.4 (3.3-15.0) μg/L, with the specificity (95%) about 95.6%(92.7%-96.8%), the sensitivity (95%) about 87.6%(81.6%-92.8%) and the AUC (95%) about 0.92 (0.87-0.95). The NRI analysis results showed that compared with the cut-off value of the American population 2, the NRI of this study's cut-off values in the total population, males and females were 0.020 (=0.015), 0.033 (=0.015) and 0.011 (=0.380), respectively, indicating that this study's cutoff value could have better classification performance in the total population and males. Compared with the cut-off value of the American population 2, the NRI of the total population in this study was 0.001 (=0.285). The serum cotinine cut-off value based on the analysis of large sample data in China is more suitable for distinguishing the smoking status of Chinese adults.
基于大规模全国样本确定血清可替宁区分中国成年人吸烟状况的最佳截断值。2017 - 2018年期间,对来自31个省份152个行政县的8987名20 - 79岁中国成年人进行了一项横断面研究。通过问卷调查和体格检查收集社会人口学特征、生活方式、吸烟状况和健康状况。采用液相色谱 - 质谱法分析血样中的血清可替宁水平,采用苦味酸法分析血肌酐水平。以血清可替宁浓度为检验变量,自我报告的吸烟状况为状态变量进行受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线分析。基于最大约登指数确定最佳截断值,并采用自助法进行重复抽样(2000次)以评估截断值的置信区间。采用净重新分类指数(NRI)评估本研究截断值、美国人群1的截断值(总人口:3.3μg/L,男性:4.1μg/L,女性:3.0μg/L)和美国人群2的截断值(美国疾病控制与预防中心推荐的总人口值:10.0μg/L)对中国人群吸烟状况的判别能力。使用IBM SPSS 27和Python 3.11进行统计分析,显著性水平α = 0.05。研究对象的年龄为(49.2±15.2)岁。其中,男性占49.8%(4477人);吸烟者占28.8%(2586人);血清可替宁检测率为94.6%(8501人),血清可替宁浓度为0.9(0.3,85.4)μg/L。ROC曲线分析结果显示,总人口中血清可替宁的截断值(95%)为8.8(6.7 - 11.7)μg/L,特异性(95%)约为93.6%(92.7% - 94.3%),敏感性(95%)约为91.0%(89.7% - 92.3%),曲线下面积(AUC)(95%)约为0.93(0.92 - 0.94)。男性可替宁的截断值(95%)为17.1(8.8 - 21.8)μg/L,特异性(95%)约为90.7%(87.9% - 92.0%),敏感性(95%)约为89.4%(88.4% - 92.2%),AUC(95%)约为0.92(0.91 - 0.93)。女性可替宁的截断值(95%)为7.4(3.3 - 15.0)μg/L,特异性(95%)约为95.6%(92.7% - 96.8%),敏感性(95%)约为87.6%(81.6% - 92.8%),AUC(95%)约为0.92(0.87 - 0.95)。NRI分析结果显示,与美国人群2的截断值相比,本研究截断值在总人口、男性和女性中的NRI分别为0.020(=0.015)、0.033(=0.015)和0.011(=0.380),表明本研究的截断值在总人口和男性中具有更好的分类性能。与美国人群2的截断值相比,本研究总人口的NRI为0.00(=0.285)。基于中国大样本数据分析得出的血清可替宁截断值更适合区分中国成年人的吸烟状况。