Comparison of low eGFR prevalence and prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality using 2009 and 2021 CKD-EPI equations in Mexican adults.

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is essential for identifying and managing chronic kidney disease (CKD). The CKD-EPI 2021 equation removed the race coefficient from the 2009 version, but its impact in Mexican populations remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To compare eGFR category prevalence and the prognostic performance of the CKD-EPI 2009 and 2021 creatinine-based eGFR equations in Mexican adults.

METHODS

We evaluated 25,236 adults ≥20 years from the 2016-2023 cycles of the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) to estimate national CKD and eGFR category prevalence using both equations. We also assessed 10-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk in 143,410 adults from the Mexico City Prospective Study (MCPS) using adjusted Cox regression models.

RESULTS

In ENSANUT 2023, prevalence of eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m2 was lower with CKD-EPI 2021 (2.8% 95%CI 1.47-4.13) compared to 2009 (3.4% 95%CI 1.79-5.01). The 2021 equation resulted in upward reclassification of eGFR in 6.2% of adults, particularly among older adults and those with hypertension or diabetes, yielding a reduction in 496,362 adults identified with eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m compared to the 2009 equation. In MCPS, upward reclassification between eGFR categories occurred in 8.3% of participants, and both equations showed similar discrimination for 10-year all-cause (c-statistics: 0.672 for both) and cardiovascular mortality (0.686 vs. 0.685), with similar performance and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The CKD-EPI 2021 equation yields lower prevalence of low eGFR but maintains similar predictive accuracy for mortality compared to the 2009 version. Findings support the use of the 2009 equation for population health monitoring in Mexico without compromising prognostic utility.