尽管气候趋势较为温和，但南部非洲的作物产量仍停滞不前。

Crop productivity in southern Africa is stagnant despite moderate climate trends.

作者信息

Lobell David B, Lee Richard J

机构信息

Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

出版信息

Nat Food. 2025 Jul 15. doi: 10.1038/s43016-025-01203-1.

DOI:10.1038/s43016-025-01203-1

PMID:40664909

Abstract

Southern Africa faces high food insecurity and projected declines in agroclimatic conditions. Multiple satellite measures indicate that cropland productivity has stagnated for most of the region except South Africa in the past 20 years, in contrast to what official crop statistics suggest. Climate trends do not explain this stagnation, with the region experiencing more rainfall and less warming than most climate model projections. A change of course is needed before climate impacts accelerate.

摘要

南部非洲面临着严重的粮食不安全问题，且预计农业气候条件会恶化。多项卫星测量表明，在过去20年里，除南非外，该地区大部分地区的农田生产力已停滞不前，这与官方作物统计数据显示的情况形成反差。气候趋势并不能解释这种停滞现象，该地区实际经历的降雨更多，气温上升幅度也小于大多数气候模型的预测。在气候影响加速之前，需要改变现状。