Bastin Jean-François, Latte Nicolas, Bogaert Jan, Garcia Claude A, Berzaghi Fabio, Maestre Fernando T, Svenning Jens-Christian, Assede Emeline, Barima Sabas, Besisa Timothée, Bouchoms Samuel, Crowther Thomas W, de Haulleville Thalès, de Lame Hugo, Depoortere Pauline, Dufrêne Marc, Hoek Van Dijke Anne J, Lhoest Simon, Mahy Gregory, Messier Christian, Mollicone Danilo, Ramalason Felana Nantenaina, Peaucelle Marc, Plumacker Antoine, Quétier Fabien, Rakotondrasoa Olivia, Sambieni Kouagou Raoul, Sparrow Ben, Tarelkin Yegor, Sikuzani Yannick Useni, Vander Linden Arthur, Lejeune Philippe
TERRA Teaching and Research Centre, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Université de Liège, Gembloux, Belgium.
School of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences, Bern University of Applied Sciences, BFH-HAFL, Bern, Switzerland.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 16;16(1):6484. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61520-8.
Preserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems is essential to preventing the decline of life on Earth. To guide global conservation efforts, we present a detailed counterfactual map showing Earth's natural tree, short vegetation, and bare ground cover. This map accounts for environmental filtering along with realistic scenarios of fire frequency and wildlife herbivory. The most likely scenario suggests 43% (5669 ± 74 Mha) of land could support trees, 39% (5183 ± 86 Mha) shrubs and grasses, and 18% (2352 ± 59 Mha) bare ground. Adjustments in fire and herbivory could shift a minimum of 675 Mha of land, stressing the importance of considering alternative outcomes when restoring a landscape. Our findings also suggest that adjustments in fire frequency and wildlife herbivory could have a greater impact on natural vegetation than expected climate changes by 2050, highlighting decision-makers' responsibility to guide conservation and restoration toward a sustainable and biodiverse future.
保护和恢复陆地生态系统对于防止地球上生命的衰退至关重要。为指导全球保护工作，我们展示了一幅详细的反事实地图，显示了地球上天然树木、低矮植被和裸地的覆盖情况。这幅地图考虑了环境筛选以及火灾频率和野生动物食草的现实情景。最有可能的情景表明，43%（5669±74百万公顷）的土地可以生长树木，39%（5183±86百万公顷）为灌木和草地，18%（2352±59百万公顷）为裸地。火灾和食草情况的调整可能使至少675百万公顷的土地发生变化，这凸显了在恢复景观时考虑替代结果的重要性。我们的研究结果还表明，到2050年，火灾频率和野生动物食草情况的调整对自然植被的影响可能比预期的气候变化更大，这突出了决策者引导保护和恢复走向可持续和生物多样未来的责任。
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