Song Linlin, He Bohao, Ahmad Shahid, Li Qian, Chen Anping, Mao Wei
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
iScience. 2025 Jun 16;28(7):112909. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.112909. eCollection 2025 Jul 18.
Climate change threatens seagrass ecosystems, which are vital for blue carbon sequestration and associated co-benefits. Our study on Hainan Island in the South China Sea assessed climate impacts on seagrass habitats using ensemble modeling under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050 and 2100. We found the current seagrass carbon stock is approximately 1.194 Tg, but projections show habitat suitability could decrease by up to 74.78% by 2100 under the severe scenario, potentially causing economic losses of $1.02-1.27 billion. While seagrass restoration requires initial investment, it offers substantial long-term climate benefits. Our analysis indicates seagrasses may migrate toward higher latitudes due to climate change, though new habitats could emerge along Hainan's southern coast by 2100. These findings emphasize the urgency of conservation and restoration efforts to safeguard seagrass ecosystems and their vital role in climate change mitigation strategies.
气候变化威胁着海草生态系统，而海草生态系统对于蓝碳封存及相关协同效益至关重要。我们在中国南海海南岛开展的研究，运用集合模型评估了在两种情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下2050年和2100年气候变化对海草栖息地的影响。我们发现，当前海草碳储量约为119.4万吨，但预测显示，在严峻情景下，到2100年栖息地适宜性可能下降多达74.78%，这可能导致10.2亿至12.7亿美元的经济损失。虽然海草恢复需要初期投资，但它能带来可观的长期气候效益。我们的分析表明，由于气候变化，海草可能会向更高纬度迁移，不过到2100年，海南岛南部海岸可能会出现新的栖息地。这些发现凸显了开展保护和恢复工作的紧迫性，以保护海草生态系统及其在气候变化缓解战略中的关键作用。
